Football · USA USL Championship · 01/10, 02:00

Prediction: Tulsa vs New Mexico United

Team pages: Tulsa · New Mexico United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Tulsa1.51

New Mexico United1.17

1X2

44% 28% 28%

Tulsa Draw New Mexico United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tulsa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWDLDD

New Mexico United 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLWDDD

Head-to-head

Tulsa 3–2–1 New Mexico United (6 last)

New Mexico United1-0Tulsa
Tulsa3-0New Mexico United
New Mexico United0-1Tulsa
Tulsa5-2New Mexico United
Tulsa1-1New Mexico United
New Mexico United3-3Tulsa

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tulsa: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tulsa	New Mexico United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.1	1.4 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.81

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:27

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.94 → 2.01▲	Pinn 2.01
X	3.63 → 3.63	Pinn 3.63
2	3.47 → 3.39▼	Pinn 3.39

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:15 +28’	1.94	3.63	3.47
04:12 +12’	1.95▲	3.67▲	3.51▲
05:07 +20’	2.01▲	3.63▼	3.39▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tulsa 3–2–1 New Mexico United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	1-0 HT 0-0	Tulsa
16/11/25 USA USL Championship	Tulsa	3-0 HT 1-0	New Mexico United
14/09/25 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	0-1 HT 0-0	Tulsa
10/08/25 USA USL Championship	Tulsa	5-2 HT 1-2	New Mexico United
13/10/24 USA USL Championship	Tulsa	1-1 HT 0-0	New Mexico United
15/08/24 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	3-3 HT 1-3	Tulsa

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	26	14	5	7	45	32	47
2	New Mexico United	24	12	7	5	37	27	43
3	Colorado Switchbacks FC	25	11	5	9	40	37	38
4	Tulsa	25	10	8	7	30	24	38
5	San Antonio FC	25	9	10	6	29	28	37
6	Sacramento Republic	24	9	10	5	30	20	37
7	Lexington SC	25	11	4	10	43	30	37
8	Orange County SC	25	9	9	7	34	40	36
9	Las Vegas Lights FC	25	9	6	10	32	35	33
10	Phoenix Rising FC	25	8	9	8	35	35	33
11	Oakland Roots	25	7	9	9	30	35	30
12	Monterey Bay FC	25	4	6	15	25	43	18

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tulsa

WWLLWWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	3	8	D
20/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	3	6	D
13/09	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
06/09	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
30/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
23/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	2-0	5-1	4	6	W
16/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
09/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
06/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	4	1	W

New Mexico United

WWWDWLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
17/09	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-1	4-4	0	5	D
12/09	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
06/09	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
30/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	2	12	L
27/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
23/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
16/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
09/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-1	5-2	2	3	W
02/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tulsa vs New Mexico United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tulsa win (44%). Probabilities: Tulsa 44%, draw 28%, New Mexico United 28%.

How many goals are expected in Tulsa vs New Mexico United?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Tulsa 1.51 · New Mexico United 1.17), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tulsa vs New Mexico United?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.