Football · USA USL Championship · 10/10, 01:30

Prediction: Lexington SC vs Tulsa

Team pages: Lexington SC · Tulsa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Lexington SC1.42

Tulsa1.04

1X2

44% 29% 26%

Lexington SC Draw Tulsa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lexington SC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLWWWW

Tulsa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDLDDW

Head-to-head

Lexington SC 0–1–2 Tulsa (3 last)

Tulsa0-0Lexington SC
Tulsa3-0Lexington SC
Lexington SC0-2Tulsa

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tulsa: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lexington SC	Tulsa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.1	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.3	1.4 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:44

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.76 → 1.76	Pinn 1.76
X	3.81 → 3.81	Pinn 3.81
2	4.16 → 4.16	Pinn 4.16

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:14 +90’	1.76	3.81	4.16

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lexington SC 0–1–2 Tulsa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 USA USL Championship	Tulsa	0-0 HT 0-0	Lexington SC
05/10/25 USA USL Championship	Tulsa	3-0 HT 1-0	Lexington SC
19/05/25 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	0-2 HT 0-1	Tulsa

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	26	14	5	7	45	32	47
2	New Mexico United	26	12	7	7	39	31	43
3	Sacramento Republic	26	11	10	5	36	24	43
4	Tulsa	26	11	8	7	31	24	41
5	Lexington SC	26	12	4	10	46	32	40
6	Orange County SC	26	10	9	7	35	40	39
7	Colorado Switchbacks FC	26	11	6	9	40	37	39
8	San Antonio FC	26	9	11	6	29	28	38
9	Oakland Roots	26	8	9	9	33	35	33
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	26	9	6	11	34	38	33
11	Phoenix Rising FC	26	8	9	9	35	38	33
12	Monterey Bay FC	26	4	6	16	27	46	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lexington SC	Tulsa
El Paso Locomotive FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Orange County SC	6-0 W	5-1 W
New Mexico United	1-2 L	1-0 W
Sacramento Republic	0-1 L	1-0 W
Phoenix Rising FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lexington SC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lexington SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
27/09	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-2	13	5	W
20/09	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	4-0	6-0	5	2	W
13/09	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	4-1	1	2	W
06/09	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-1	2-3	9	2	L
30/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
27/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
23/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
16/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
09/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	3	W

Tulsa

WLLWWDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
26/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	3	8	D
20/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	3	6	D
13/09	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
06/09	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
30/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
23/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	2-0	5-1	4	6	W
16/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
09/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
06/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lexington SC vs Tulsa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lexington SC win (44%). Probabilities: Lexington SC 44%, draw 29%, Tulsa 26%.

How many goals are expected in Lexington SC vs Tulsa?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Lexington SC 1.42 · Tulsa 1.04), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lexington SC vs Tulsa?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.