Football · USA USL Championship · 11/10, 01:00

Prediction: Miami FC vs Loudoun United FC

Team pages: Miami FC · Loudoun United FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Miami FC1.73

Loudoun United FC1.27

1X2

47% 25% 27%

Miami FC Draw Loudoun United FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Miami FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Loudoun United FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDDLLLLWD

Head-to-head

Miami FC 2–2–2 Loudoun United FC (6 last)

Loudoun United FC0-0Miami FC
Loudoun United FC3-1Miami FC
Miami FC2-1Loudoun United FC
Loudoun United FC4-1Miami FC
Miami FC2-2Loudoun United FC
Loudoun United FC1-2Miami FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Miami FC 1521 · Loudoun United FC 1469

	Miami FC	Draw	Loudoun United FC
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	47%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Miami FC (rating 1521 vs 1469).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Miami FC	Loudoun United FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2.7	1.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.08 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.63
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:06 +1’	1.91	3.60	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:41 +40’	2.08	3.63	3.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Miami FC 2–2–2 Loudoun United FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 USA USL Championship	Loudoun United FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Miami FC
31/08/25 USA USL Championship	Loudoun United FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Miami FC
18/05/25 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	2-1 HT 2-1	Loudoun United FC
04/08/24 USA USL Championship	Loudoun United FC	4-1 HT 1-1	Miami FC
23/06/24 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Loudoun United FC
30/07/23 USA USL Championship	Loudoun United FC	1-2 HT 1-2	Miami FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	15	7	5	46	25	52
2	Detroit City FC	27	13	8	6	33	20	47
3	Charleston Battery	26	14	4	8	52	31	46
4	Hartford Athletic	26	9	12	5	29	26	39
5	Rhode Island FC	26	11	5	10	39	29	38
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	11	5	11	28	27	38
7	Louisville City FC	26	10	7	9	43	42	37
8	Miami FC	28	9	9	10	38	45	36
9	Indy Eleven	27	9	7	11	33	33	34
10	Loudoun United FC	26	4	12	10	32	44	24
11	Birmingham Legion FC	26	4	11	11	36	43	23
12	Brooklyn FC	27	4	6	17	27	55	18
13	Sporting JAX	27	3	5	19	32	73	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Miami FC	Loudoun United FC
Sporting JAX	4-1 W	4-1 W
Indy Eleven	2-0 W	1-1 D
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2-2 D	0-1 L
Charleston Battery	0-5 L	0-1 L
Hartford Athletic	1-2 L	2-0 W
Detroit City FC	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Miami FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
01/10	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	2-1	4-1	2	6	W
27/09	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
20/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	0	7	W
13/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
06/09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
25/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-2	0-5	0	5	L
16/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
09/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
02/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	3	9	D

Loudoun United FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
26/09	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-1	4-1	4	3	W
20/09	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
13/09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
05/09	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	4-5	4	4	L
30/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-3	1-4	7	2	L
23/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
16/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
09/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
02/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Miami FC vs Loudoun United FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Miami FC win (47%). Probabilities: Miami FC 47%, draw 25%, Loudoun United FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Miami FC vs Loudoun United FC?

The model expects 3 goals (Miami FC 1.73 · Loudoun United FC 1.27), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Miami FC vs Loudoun United FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.