Football · USA USL Championship · 11/10, 01:00
Prediction: Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
Team pages: Indy Eleven · Tampa Bay Rowdies
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Indy Eleven1.08
Tampa Bay Rowdies1.35
1X2
Indy Eleven
Draw
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Indy Eleven
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Tampa Bay Rowdies
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Indy Eleven
0–1–5
Tampa Bay Rowdies
(6 last)
- Tampa Bay Rowdies1-0Indy Eleven
- Indy Eleven1-3Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Tampa Bay Rowdies3-1Indy Eleven
- Tampa Bay Rowdies3-0Indy Eleven
- Indy Eleven0-2Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Indy Eleven0-0Tampa Bay Rowdies
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Indy Eleven 1468 · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1529
| Indy Eleven | Draw | Tampa Bay Rowdies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 30% | 42% |
| Market | 31% | 25% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampa Bay Rowdies (rating 1468 vs 1529).
- H2H favours Tampa Bay Rowdies: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Indy Eleven | Tampa Bay Rowdies | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.8 | 3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Indy Eleven 0–1–5 Tampa Bay Rowdies
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 USA USL Championship | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Indy Eleven |
| 03/08/25 USA USL Championship | Indy Eleven | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
| 26/06/25 USA USL Championship | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Indy Eleven |
| 27/10/24 USA USL Championship | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Indy Eleven |
| 21/07/24 USA USL Championship | Indy Eleven | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
| 23/07/23 USA USL Championship | Indy Eleven | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 25 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City FC | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33 | 20 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston Battery | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 31 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island FC | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 29 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 27 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City FC | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 42 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 45 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United FC | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32 | 44 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion FC | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36 | 43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27 | 55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 73 | 14 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Indy Eleven | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island FC | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Miami FC | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Brooklyn FC | 4-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Birmingham Legion FC | 2-2 D | 4-0 W |
| Louisville City FC | 2-1 W | 5-4 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Tampa Bay Rowdies (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Indy Eleven
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/10 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
Tampa Bay Rowdies
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 27/09 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 20/09 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 06/09 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 5-4 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tampa Bay Rowdies win (43%). Probabilities: Indy Eleven 30%, draw 27%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 43%.
How many goals are expected in Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Indy Eleven 1.08 · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.35), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.