Football · USA USL Championship · 11/10, 00:00

Prediction: Charleston Battery vs Louisville City FC

Team pages: Charleston Battery · Louisville City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Charleston Battery1.72

Louisville City FC1.26

1X2

47% 25% 27%

Charleston Battery Draw Louisville City FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Charleston Battery 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLDWW

Louisville City FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDDLWD

Head-to-head

Charleston Battery 3–3 Louisville City FC (6 last)

Louisville City FC0-2Charleston Battery
Louisville City FC4-1Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery1-2Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC3-1Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery3-2Louisville City FC
Charleston Battery2-1Louisville City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charleston Battery 1554 · Louisville City FC 1494

	Charleston Battery	Draw	Louisville City FC
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	47%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charleston Battery (rating 1554 vs 1494).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charleston Battery	Louisville City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	3.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.6	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.64
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.55 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:00 +7’	1.91	3.60	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:16 +65’	1.75	3.91	4.09
11:17 +115’	1.94▲	3.68▼	3.54▼
18:11 +56’	1.95▲	3.64▼	3.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Charleston Battery 3–0–3 Louisville City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Charleston Battery
10/08/25 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	4-1 HT 4-0	Charleston Battery
09/03/25 USA USL Championship	Charleston Battery	1-2 HT 0-0	Louisville City FC
18/08/24 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Charleston Battery
10/04/24 USA USL Championship	Charleston Battery	3-2 HT 3-1	Louisville City FC
05/11/23 USA USL Championship	Charleston Battery	2-1 HT 1-0	Louisville City FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	15	7	5	46	25	52
2	Detroit City FC	27	13	8	6	33	20	47
3	Charleston Battery	26	14	4	8	52	31	46
4	Hartford Athletic	26	9	12	5	29	26	39
5	Rhode Island FC	26	11	5	10	39	29	38
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	11	5	11	28	27	38
7	Louisville City FC	26	10	7	9	43	42	37
8	Miami FC	28	9	9	10	38	45	36
9	Indy Eleven	27	9	7	11	33	33	34
10	Loudoun United FC	26	4	12	10	32	44	24
11	Birmingham Legion FC	26	4	11	11	36	43	23
12	Brooklyn FC	27	4	6	17	27	55	18
13	Sporting JAX	27	3	5	19	32	73	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charleston Battery	Louisville City FC
Rhode Island FC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Birmingham Legion FC	2-2 D	2-1 W
Hartford Athletic	1-2 L	2-2 D
Loudoun United FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Louisville City FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charleston Battery

LWWLWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
20/09	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/09	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-2	2-2	6	3	D
03/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-0	1-2	7	6	L
30/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	1	1	W
25/08	Miami FC USA USL Championship	2-0	5-0	2	5	W
16/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	1-2	1-3	3	8	L
09/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
02/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	5-0	3	7	W
26/07	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	3	4	L

Louisville City FC

WLDWLDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	7	7	D
20/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	1	5	W
13/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	12	4	L
06/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
30/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	11	1	L
16/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	4	1	W
09/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	3-0	4-5	2	1	L
30/07	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	10	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charleston Battery vs Louisville City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charleston Battery win (47%). Probabilities: Charleston Battery 47%, draw 25%, Louisville City FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Charleston Battery vs Louisville City FC?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Charleston Battery 1.72 · Louisville City FC 1.26), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Charleston Battery vs Louisville City FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.