Football · USA USL Championship · 11/10, 01:00

Prediction: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Hartford Athletic

Team pages: Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Hartford Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.92Total

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.14

Hartford Athletic0.78

1X2

44% 30% 25%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Draw Hartford Athletic

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWLDDWLL

Hartford Athletic 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWWDWWDD

Head-to-head

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3–2–1 Hartford Athletic (6 last)

Hartford Athletic0-0Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds0-0Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic1-2Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1-0Hartford Athletic
Pittsburgh Riverhounds3-1Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic2-0Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1510 · Hartford Athletic 1571

	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Draw	Hartford Athletic
Our model	43%	34%	24%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 1.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hartford Athletic (rating 1510 vs 1571).
H2H favours Pittsburgh Riverhounds: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Hartford Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.7	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.8	2.5 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.07
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.75 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:01 +6’	2.00	3.25	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:21 +60’	2.36	3.07	3.17
11:49 +83’	2.07▼	3.14▲	3.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3–2–1 Hartford Athletic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	0-0 HT 0-0	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
01/11/25 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0-0 HT 0-0	Hartford Athletic
21/09/25 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	1-2 HT 1-1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
23/03/25 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1-0 HT 0-0	Hartford Athletic
21/07/24 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3-1 HT 3-1	Hartford Athletic
16/06/24 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	2-0 HT 2-0	Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	15	7	5	46	25	52
2	Detroit City FC	27	13	8	6	33	20	47
3	Charleston Battery	26	14	4	8	52	31	46
4	Hartford Athletic	26	9	12	5	29	26	39
5	Rhode Island FC	26	11	5	10	39	29	38
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	11	5	11	28	27	38
7	Louisville City FC	26	10	7	9	43	42	37
8	Miami FC	28	9	9	10	38	45	36
9	Indy Eleven	27	9	7	11	33	33	34
10	Loudoun United FC	26	4	12	10	32	44	24
11	Birmingham Legion FC	26	4	11	11	36	43	23
12	Brooklyn FC	27	4	6	17	27	55	18
13	Sporting JAX	27	3	5	19	32	73	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Hartford Athletic
Detroit City FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Loudoun United FC	1-0 W	0-2 L
Miami FC	2-2 D	2-1 W
Tampa Bay Rowdies	0-0 D	3-1 W
Charleston Battery	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hartford Athletic (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

WDWWLDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
20/09	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
13/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
06/09	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
27/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	2	1	L
23/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
16/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	2-1	3-1	6	8	W
09/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
02/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	0	3	W

Hartford Athletic

LDWWWDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-2	7	7	D
20/09	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
17/09	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
13/09	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	3-1	1	10	W
06/09	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
03/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
30/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-2	3-2	6	6	W
16/08	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
09/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
02/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Hartford Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pittsburgh Riverhounds win (44%). Probabilities: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 44%, draw 30%, Hartford Athletic 25%.

How many goals are expected in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Hartford Athletic?

The model expects 1.92 goals (Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.14 · Hartford Athletic 0.78), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Hartford Athletic?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.