Football · USA USL Championship · 01/10, 01:00

Prediction: Miami FC vs Sporting JAX

Team pages: Miami FC · Sporting JAX

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

Miami FC2.28

Sporting JAX1.42

1X2

56% 21% 23%

Miami FC Draw Sporting JAX

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Miami FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Sporting JAX 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLWLLL

Head-to-head

Miami FC 2–0 Sporting JAX (2 last)

Sporting JAX0-1Miami FC
Sporting JAX2-4Miami FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Miami FC (rating 1479 vs 1406).
H2H favours Miami FC: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Miami FC	Sporting JAX
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	1 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.4 / 2.7	1.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.1	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.81

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:43

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.63 → 1.69▲	Pinn 1.69
X	3.60 → 3.54▼	Pinn 3.54
2	5.14 → 5.02▼	Pinn 5.02

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:32 +15’	1.63	3.60	5.14
02:12 +36’	1.65▲	3.65▲	5.23▲
03:15 +28’	1.69▲	3.54▼	5.02▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Miami FC 2–0–0 Sporting JAX

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 USA USL Cup	Sporting JAX	0-1 HT 0-1	Miami FC
26/03/26 USA USL Championship	Sporting JAX	2-4 HT 2-1	Miami FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	25	15	6	4	45	23	51
2	Charleston Battery	25	13	4	8	50	31	43
3	Detroit City FC	24	11	7	6	29	19	40
4	Hartford Athletic	26	9	12	5	29	26	39
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	26	11	5	10	28	26	38
6	Louisville City FC	26	10	7	9	43	42	37
7	Indy Eleven	24	9	6	9	32	29	33
8	Rhode Island FC	23	9	5	9	35	26	32
9	Miami FC	25	6	9	10	30	43	27
10	Birmingham Legion FC	25	4	11	10	36	42	23
11	Loudoun United FC	25	4	11	10	31	43	23
12	Brooklyn FC	25	4	6	15	25	49	18
13	Sporting JAX	26	3	5	18	31	69	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Miami FC	Sporting JAX
Rhode Island FC	2-1 W	0-3 L
Brooklyn FC	1-1 D	1-4 L
Hartford Athletic	1-2 L	0-2 L
Indy Eleven	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Miami FC (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Miami FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	0	7	W
13/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
06/09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
25/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-2	0-5	0	5	L
16/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
09/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
02/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	3	9	D
26/07	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-2	2-3	3	9	L
23/07	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
16/07	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	1	1	W

Sporting JAX

DLLLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-4	7	3	L
17/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
13/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
06/09	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	2	2	W
30/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-3	1-4	5	4	L
23/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-2	5	2	W
16/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
02/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-4	0-5	0	5	L
26/07	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
19/07	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Miami FC vs Sporting JAX?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Miami FC win (56%). Probabilities: Miami FC 56%, draw 21%, Sporting JAX 23%.

How many goals are expected in Miami FC vs Sporting JAX?

The model expects 3.7 goals (Miami FC 2.28 · Sporting JAX 1.42), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Miami FC vs Sporting JAX?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.