Football · USA USL Championship · 01/10, 04:00
Prediction: Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights FC
Team pages: Sacramento Republic · Las Vegas Lights FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.17Total
Sacramento Republic1.38
Las Vegas Lights FC0.79
1X2
Sacramento Republic
Draw
Las Vegas Lights FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Sacramento Republic
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Las Vegas Lights FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sacramento Republic
3–2–1
Las Vegas Lights FC
(6 last)
- Las Vegas Lights FC1-1Sacramento Republic
- Las Vegas Lights FC0-2Sacramento Republic
- Sacramento Republic4-0Las Vegas Lights FC
- Sacramento Republic5-0Las Vegas Lights FC
- Las Vegas Lights FC0-0Sacramento Republic
- Las Vegas Lights FC2-1Sacramento Republic
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sacramento Republic: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sacramento Republic | Las Vegas Lights FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.7 | 1.6 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sacramento Republic 3–2–1 Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sacramento Republic |
| 05/07/25 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 01/06/25 USA USL Cup | Sacramento Republic | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 18/05/25 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 02/11/24 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 22/09/24 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Sacramento Republic |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 32 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 37 | 27 | 43 |
| 3 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 38 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 30 | 24 | 38 |
| 5 | San Antonio FC | 25 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 29 | 28 | 37 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 30 | 20 | 37 |
| 7 | Lexington SC | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 43 | 30 | 37 |
| 8 | Orange County SC | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 40 | 36 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 35 | 33 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising FC | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 35 | 33 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 30 | 35 | 30 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 43 | 18 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sacramento Republic | Las Vegas Lights FC |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit City FC | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Orange County SC | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Phoenix Rising FC | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Lexington SC | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Oakland Roots | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Sacramento Republic (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sacramento Republic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 06/09 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 06/08 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 02/08 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
4-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 16/08 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 06/08 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 02/08 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sacramento Republic win (50%). Probabilities: Sacramento Republic 50%, draw 30%, Las Vegas Lights FC 20%.
How many goals are expected in Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
The model expects 2.17 goals (Sacramento Republic 1.38 · Las Vegas Lights FC 0.79), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.