Football · USA USL Championship · 11/10, 04:00
Prediction: Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Switchbacks FC
Team pages: Sacramento Republic · Colorado Switchbacks FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.51Total
Sacramento Republic1.53
Colorado Switchbacks FC0.98
1X2
Sacramento Republic
Draw
Colorado Switchbacks FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sacramento Republic
4-6-0 (W-D-L)
Colorado Switchbacks FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sacramento Republic
3–1–2
Colorado Switchbacks FC
(6 last)
- Colorado Switchbacks FC0-1Sacramento Republic
- Colorado Switchbacks FC0-2Sacramento Republic
- Sacramento Republic2-2Colorado Switchbacks FC
- Sacramento Republic0-1Colorado Switchbacks FC
- Colorado Switchbacks FC0-2Sacramento Republic
- Colorado Switchbacks FC2-0Sacramento Republic
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sacramento Republic 1569 · Colorado Switchbacks FC 1505
| Sacramento Republic | Draw | Colorado Switchbacks FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 49% | 27% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sacramento Republic (rating 1569 vs 1505).
- H2H favours Sacramento Republic: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sacramento Republic | Colorado Switchbacks FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 0/100/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.8 | 2.6 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sacramento Republic 3–1–2 Colorado Switchbacks FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 USA USL Championship | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 21/09/25 USA USL Championship | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 23/03/25 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Colorado Switchbacks FC |
| 27/10/24 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Colorado Switchbacks FC |
| 07/04/24 USA USL Championship | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Sacramento Republic |
| 24/09/23 USA USL Championship | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sacramento Republic |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 47 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37 | 25 | 44 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 39 | 31 | 43 |
| 4 | Lexington SC | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 33 | 43 |
| 5 | Tulsa | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 42 |
| 6 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 42 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 38 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 35 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising FC | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 38 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 47 | 21 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sacramento Republic | Colorado Switchbacks FC |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| San Antonio FC | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Detroit City FC | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Phoenix Rising FC | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Lexington SC | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Sacramento Republic (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sacramento Republic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 01/10 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 14 | 7 | W |
| 27/09 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 21/09 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 06/09 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
Colorado Switchbacks FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 27/09 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 20/09 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 5-4 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 20/08 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Switchbacks FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sacramento Republic win (49%). Probabilities: Sacramento Republic 49%, draw 28%, Colorado Switchbacks FC 23%.
How many goals are expected in Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Switchbacks FC?
The model expects 2.51 goals (Sacramento Republic 1.53 · Colorado Switchbacks FC 0.98), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Switchbacks FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.