Football · USA USL Championship · 11/10, 03:00

Prediction: New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay FC

Team pages: New Mexico United · Monterey Bay FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

New Mexico United2.1

Monterey Bay FC1.25

1X2

56% 22% 21%

New Mexico United Draw Monterey Bay FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

New Mexico United 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDDDLL

Monterey Bay FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDDLLW

Head-to-head

New Mexico United 4–1–1 Monterey Bay FC (6 last)

Monterey Bay FC2-5New Mexico United
Monterey Bay FC1-1New Mexico United
New Mexico United1-0Monterey Bay FC
New Mexico United3-2Monterey Bay FC
Monterey Bay FC1-0New Mexico United
New Mexico United2-1Monterey Bay FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New Mexico United 1506 · Monterey Bay FC 1447

	New Mexico United	Draw	Monterey Bay FC
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New Mexico United (rating 1506 vs 1447).
H2H favours New Mexico United: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New Mexico United	Monterey Bay FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	1.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.10

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.71 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.12
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:39 +4’	1.61	4.10	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +31’	1.70	4.07	4.03
01:14 +35’	1.71▲	4.12▲	4.09▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New Mexico United 4–1–1 Monterey Bay FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 USA USL Championship	Monterey Bay FC	2-5 HT 1-1	New Mexico United
21/09/25 USA USL Championship	Monterey Bay FC	1-1 HT 0-0	New Mexico United
24/04/25 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	1-0 HT 1-0	Monterey Bay FC
18/08/24 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	3-2 HT 2-1	Monterey Bay FC
03/06/24 USA USL Championship	Monterey Bay FC	1-0 HT 0-0	New Mexico United
14/05/23 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	2-1 HT 1-0	Monterey Bay FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	27	14	5	8	46	35	47
2	Sacramento Republic	27	11	11	5	37	25	44
3	New Mexico United	26	12	7	7	39	31	43
4	Lexington SC	27	13	4	10	49	33	43
5	Tulsa	27	11	9	7	32	25	42
6	Colorado Switchbacks FC	27	11	7	9	40	37	40
7	Orange County SC	27	10	9	8	36	42	39
8	San Antonio FC	27	9	11	7	29	29	38
9	Las Vegas Lights FC	27	10	6	11	35	38	36
10	Oakland Roots	27	8	10	9	33	35	34
11	Phoenix Rising FC	26	8	9	9	35	38	33
12	Monterey Bay FC	27	5	6	16	29	47	21

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New Mexico United	Monterey Bay FC
Sacramento Republic	2-3 L	1-1 D
Lexington SC	2-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New Mexico United

WDWLWDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
27/09	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
20/09	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
17/09	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-1	4-4	0	5	D
12/09	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
06/09	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
30/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	2	12	L
27/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
23/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
16/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	8	1	W

Monterey Bay FC

LLLDLDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
27/09	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
20/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
06/09	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
23/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	3	8	L
16/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
09/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-1	2-5	12	3	L
06/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
02/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	2-2	2-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New Mexico United win (56%). Probabilities: New Mexico United 56%, draw 22%, Monterey Bay FC 21%.

How many goals are expected in New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay FC?

The model expects 3.35 goals (New Mexico United 2.1 · Monterey Bay FC 1.25), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.