Football · USA USL Championship · 11/10, 03:00

Prediction: El Paso Locomotive FC vs Orange County SC

Team pages: El Paso Locomotive FC · Orange County SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

El Paso Locomotive FC2.05

Orange County SC1.08

1X2

59% 22% 19%

El Paso Locomotive FC Draw Orange County SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

El Paso Locomotive FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Orange County SC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDDLLWL

Head-to-head

El Paso Locomotive FC 2–1–3 Orange County SC (6 last)

Orange County SC2-0El Paso Locomotive FC
Orange County SC1-2El Paso Locomotive FC
Orange County SC0-0El Paso Locomotive FC
El Paso Locomotive FC0-3Orange County SC
El Paso Locomotive FC0-2Orange County SC
Orange County SC0-1El Paso Locomotive FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · El Paso Locomotive FC 1591 · Orange County SC 1418

	El Paso Locomotive FC	Draw	Orange County SC
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours El Paso Locomotive FC (rating 1591 vs 1418).
H2H favours Orange County SC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	El Paso Locomotive FC	Orange County SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	0.9 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	0.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 3.9	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.20

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.55
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.58 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:38 +5’	1.53	4.20	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +509’	1.55	4.58	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · El Paso Locomotive FC 2–1–3 Orange County SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 USA USL Championship	Orange County SC	2-0 HT 1-0	El Paso Locomotive FC
26/04/26 USA USL Cup	Orange County SC	1-2 HT 0-0	El Paso Locomotive FC
05/10/25 USA USL Championship	Orange County SC	0-0 HT 0-0	El Paso Locomotive FC
15/06/25 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	0-3 HT 0-3	Orange County SC
17/10/24 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Orange County SC
18/08/24 USA USL Championship	Orange County SC	0-1 HT 0-0	El Paso Locomotive FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	27	14	5	8	46	35	47
2	Sacramento Republic	27	11	11	5	37	25	44
3	New Mexico United	26	12	7	7	39	31	43
4	Lexington SC	27	13	4	10	49	33	43
5	Tulsa	27	11	9	7	32	25	42
6	Colorado Switchbacks FC	27	11	7	9	40	37	40
7	Orange County SC	27	10	9	8	36	42	39
8	San Antonio FC	27	9	11	7	29	29	38
9	Las Vegas Lights FC	27	10	6	11	35	38	36
10	Oakland Roots	27	8	10	9	33	35	34
11	Phoenix Rising FC	26	8	9	9	35	38	33
12	Monterey Bay FC	27	5	6	16	29	47	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	El Paso Locomotive FC	Orange County SC
Lexington SC	1-3 L	0-6 L
Tulsa	1-1 D	1-5 L
Louisville City FC	2-1 W	2-3 L
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2-1 W	1-0 W
Oakland Roots	1-0 W	1-1 D
Monterey Bay FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: El Paso Locomotive FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

El Paso Locomotive FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
26/09	Tulsa USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
20/09	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	3	8	W
13/09	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	3-1	4-1	7	2	W
27/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
23/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
16/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	3-0	3-0	4	6	W
09/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
06/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	6	5	W

Orange County SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
20/09	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-4	0-6	4	2	L
13/09	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
06/09	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
30/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
23/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-2	1-5	9	6	L
16/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-3	5	1	L
09/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
02/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Orange County SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a El Paso Locomotive FC win (59%). Probabilities: El Paso Locomotive FC 59%, draw 22%, Orange County SC 19%.

How many goals are expected in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Orange County SC?

The model expects 3.13 goals (El Paso Locomotive FC 2.05 · Orange County SC 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Orange County SC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.