Football · USA USL Championship · 11/10, 04:00
Prediction: Phoenix Rising FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC
Team pages: Phoenix Rising FC · Las Vegas Lights FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
Phoenix Rising FC1.61
Las Vegas Lights FC1.04
1X2
Phoenix Rising FC
Draw
Las Vegas Lights FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Phoenix Rising FC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Las Vegas Lights FC
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Phoenix Rising FC
2–3–1
Las Vegas Lights FC
(6 last)
- Las Vegas Lights FC1-1Phoenix Rising FC
- Phoenix Rising FC0-0Las Vegas Lights FC
- Las Vegas Lights FC0-1Phoenix Rising FC
- Phoenix Rising FC1-2Las Vegas Lights FC
- Las Vegas Lights FC0-0Phoenix Rising FC
- Las Vegas Lights FC2-3Phoenix Rising FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Phoenix Rising FC 1497 · Las Vegas Lights FC 1497
| Phoenix Rising FC | Draw | Las Vegas Lights FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Phoenix Rising FC: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Phoenix Rising FC | Las Vegas Lights FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.9 | 1.9 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.2 | 4.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Phoenix Rising FC 2–3–1 Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 06/09/25 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 29/05/25 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 29/09/24 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 02/06/24 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 27/08/23 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Phoenix Rising FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 47 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37 | 25 | 44 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 39 | 31 | 43 |
| 4 | Lexington SC | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 33 | 43 |
| 5 | Tulsa | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 42 |
| 6 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 42 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 38 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 35 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising FC | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 38 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 47 | 21 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Phoenix Rising FC | Las Vegas Lights FC |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland Roots | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Sacramento Republic | 2-2 D | 2-3 L |
| Lexington SC | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Hartford Athletic | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Phoenix Rising FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Phoenix Rising FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 20/08 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | D |
Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 01/10 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 20/09 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 16/08 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 06/08 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Phoenix Rising FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Phoenix Rising FC win (50%). Probabilities: Phoenix Rising FC 50%, draw 26%, Las Vegas Lights FC 24%.
How many goals are expected in Phoenix Rising FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Phoenix Rising FC 1.61 · Las Vegas Lights FC 1.04), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Phoenix Rising FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.