Football · USA USL Championship · 04/10, 01:00

Prediction: Detroit City FC vs Birmingham Legion FC

Team pages: Detroit City FC · Birmingham Legion FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Detroit City FC1.76

Birmingham Legion FC0.91

1X2

57% 25% 19%

Detroit City FC Draw Birmingham Legion FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Detroit City FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDWDDLWD

Birmingham Legion FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDDDLW

Head-to-head

Detroit City FC 3–2–1 Birmingham Legion FC (6 last)

Birmingham Legion FC1-2Detroit City FC
Birmingham Legion FC1-1Detroit City FC
Detroit City FC2-2Birmingham Legion FC
Birmingham Legion FC0-1Detroit City FC
Detroit City FC1-2Birmingham Legion FC
Birmingham Legion FC2-3Detroit City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Detroit City FC 1537 · Birmingham Legion FC 1458

	Detroit City FC	Draw	Birmingham Legion FC
Our model	56%	26%	18%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Detroit City FC (rating 1537 vs 1458).
H2H favours Detroit City FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Detroit City FC	Birmingham Legion FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.5	2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.2	0.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.1	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.70

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:15 +4’	1.57	3.70	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Detroit City FC 3–2–1 Birmingham Legion FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Detroit City FC
18/05/25 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Detroit City FC
22/03/25 USA USL Championship	Detroit City FC	2-2 HT 2-1	Birmingham Legion FC
17/08/24 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Detroit City FC
27/06/24 USA USL Championship	Detroit City FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Birmingham Legion FC
27/08/23 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	2-3 HT 2-3	Detroit City FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	26	15	7	4	45	23	52
2	Charleston Battery	26	14	4	8	52	31	46
3	Detroit City FC	25	11	8	6	29	19	41
4	Hartford Athletic	26	9	12	5	29	26	39
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	11	5	11	28	27	38
6	Louisville City FC	26	10	7	9	43	42	37
7	Indy Eleven	25	9	6	10	32	31	33
8	Rhode Island FC	24	9	5	10	35	28	32
9	Miami FC	26	7	9	10	32	43	30
10	Birmingham Legion FC	25	4	11	10	36	42	23
11	Loudoun United FC	25	4	11	10	31	43	23
12	Brooklyn FC	25	4	6	15	25	49	18
13	Sporting JAX	26	3	5	18	31	69	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Detroit City FC	Birmingham Legion FC
Colorado Switchbacks FC	0-0 D	2-3 L
Hartford Athletic	1-1 D	2-3 L
Louisville City FC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Tampa Bay Rowdies	1-0 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Detroit City FC (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Detroit City FC

LDWDWDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
20/09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
13/09	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
06/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	12	4	D
30/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
16/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
09/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
02/08	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-2	4	9	D
26/07	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	8	7	L

Birmingham Legion FC

LWLLLDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-0	4-0	4	1	W
20/09	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-2	0-4	7	4	L
17/09	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-2	4-4	9	5	D
13/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	2-2	2-2	1	3	D
06/09	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
30/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	2-2	2-3	5	6	L
23/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-0	2-3	5	2	L
16/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-3	0	5	L
03/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
30/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	1	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Detroit City FC vs Birmingham Legion FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Detroit City FC win (57%). Probabilities: Detroit City FC 57%, draw 25%, Birmingham Legion FC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Detroit City FC vs Birmingham Legion FC?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Detroit City FC 1.76 · Birmingham Legion FC 0.91), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Detroit City FC vs Birmingham Legion FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.