Football · USA USL Championship · 04/10, 02:00

Prediction: Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic

Team pages: Tulsa · Sacramento Republic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Tulsa1.04

Sacramento Republic1.13

1X2

32% 30% 37%

Tulsa Draw Sacramento Republic

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Tulsa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWDLDD

Sacramento Republic 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WLDWDDDWDW

Head-to-head

Tulsa 3–2–1 Sacramento Republic (6 last)

Tulsa1-0Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic2-0Tulsa
Sacramento Republic0-1Tulsa
Tulsa1-0Sacramento Republic
Tulsa0-0Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic1-1Tulsa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tulsa 1524 · Sacramento Republic 1561

	Tulsa	Draw	Sacramento Republic
Our model	32%	32%	36%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tulsa: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tulsa	Sacramento Republic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.4 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.1	2.6 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:04 +13’	2.70	3.10	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tulsa 3–2–1 Sacramento Republic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/08/26 USA USL Championship	Tulsa	1-0 HT 0-0	Sacramento Republic
08/03/26 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	2-0 HT 0-0	Tulsa
08/06/25 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	0-1 HT 0-1	Tulsa
29/03/25 USA USL Championship	Tulsa	1-0 HT 0-0	Sacramento Republic
23/06/24 USA USL Championship	Tulsa	0-0 HT 0-0	Sacramento Republic
14/04/24 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	1-1 HT 1-0	Tulsa

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	26	14	5	7	45	32	47
2	New Mexico United	25	12	7	6	39	30	43
3	Sacramento Republic	25	10	10	5	33	22	40
4	Lexington SC	26	12	4	10	46	32	40
5	Orange County SC	26	10	9	7	35	40	39
6	Colorado Switchbacks FC	26	11	6	9	40	37	39
7	Tulsa	25	10	8	7	30	24	38
8	San Antonio FC	26	9	11	6	29	28	38
9	Oakland Roots	26	8	9	9	33	35	33
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	25	9	6	10	32	35	33
11	Phoenix Rising FC	26	8	9	9	35	38	33
12	Monterey Bay FC	26	4	6	16	27	46	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tulsa	Sacramento Republic
Phoenix Rising FC	1-2 L	2-2 D
San Antonio FC	0-0 D	0-0 D
Orange County SC	5-1 W	1-1 D
New Mexico United	0-1 L	3-2 W
Detroit City FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sacramento Republic (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tulsa

WWLLWWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	3	8	D
20/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	3	6	D
13/09	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
06/09	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
30/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
23/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	2-0	5-1	4	6	W
16/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
09/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
06/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	4	1	W

Sacramento Republic

WLDWDDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	2	6	W
21/09	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	12	3	D
13/09	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
06/09	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	11	5	D
30/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
23/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
16/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
09/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
06/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
02/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	4-0	5-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sacramento Republic win (37%). Probabilities: Tulsa 32%, draw 30%, Sacramento Republic 37%.

How many goals are expected in Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Tulsa 1.04 · Sacramento Republic 1.13), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.