Football · USA USL Championship · 04/10, 04:30

Prediction: Las Vegas Lights FC vs San Antonio FC

Team pages: Las Vegas Lights FC · San Antonio FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Las Vegas Lights FC1.1

San Antonio FC0.93

1X2

39% 30% 31%

Las Vegas Lights FC Draw San Antonio FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Las Vegas Lights FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLLLWD

San Antonio FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWDLDD

Head-to-head

Las Vegas Lights FC 2–2–2 San Antonio FC (6 last)

San Antonio FC1-2Las Vegas Lights FC
Las Vegas Lights FC1-1San Antonio FC
San Antonio FC3-0Las Vegas Lights FC
San Antonio FC1-1Las Vegas Lights FC
Las Vegas Lights FC1-0San Antonio FC
Las Vegas Lights FC1-2San Antonio FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Las Vegas Lights FC 1516 · San Antonio FC 1494

	Las Vegas Lights FC	Draw	San Antonio FC
Our model	38%	33%	29%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Las Vegas Lights FC	San Antonio FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.25

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +3’	2.20	3.25	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Las Vegas Lights FC 2–2–2 San Antonio FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 USA USL Championship	San Antonio FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Las Vegas Lights FC
10/08/25 USA USL Championship	Las Vegas Lights FC	1-1 HT 0-1	San Antonio FC
08/06/25 USA USL Championship	San Antonio FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Las Vegas Lights FC
12/05/24 USA USL Championship	San Antonio FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Las Vegas Lights FC
07/04/24 USA USL Championship	Las Vegas Lights FC	1-0 HT 0-0	San Antonio FC
08/05/23 USA USL Championship	Las Vegas Lights FC	1-2 HT 1-1	San Antonio FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	26	14	5	7	45	32	47
2	New Mexico United	25	12	7	6	39	30	43
3	Sacramento Republic	25	10	10	5	33	22	40
4	Lexington SC	26	12	4	10	46	32	40
5	Orange County SC	26	10	9	7	35	40	39
6	Colorado Switchbacks FC	26	11	6	9	40	37	39
7	Tulsa	25	10	8	7	30	24	38
8	San Antonio FC	26	9	11	6	29	28	38
9	Oakland Roots	26	8	9	9	33	35	33
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	25	9	6	10	32	35	33
11	Phoenix Rising FC	26	8	9	9	35	38	33
12	Monterey Bay FC	26	4	6	16	27	46	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Las Vegas Lights FC	San Antonio FC
New Mexico United	1-2 L	2-1 W
Brooklyn FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Oakland Roots	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Las Vegas Lights FC

WDDWWLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
13/09	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
06/09	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
30/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
23/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
16/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
09/08	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
06/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
02/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
26/07	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	2	7	W

San Antonio FC

WWDLLWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
21/09	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
12/09	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
06/09	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
30/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	3	12	W
23/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
16/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-3	0-3	2	6	L
09/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
01/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
26/07	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Las Vegas Lights FC vs San Antonio FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Las Vegas Lights FC win (39%). Probabilities: Las Vegas Lights FC 39%, draw 30%, San Antonio FC 31%.

How many goals are expected in Las Vegas Lights FC vs San Antonio FC?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Las Vegas Lights FC 1.1 · San Antonio FC 0.93), with a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Las Vegas Lights FC vs San Antonio FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.