Football · USA USL Championship · 04/10, 01:00

Prediction: Lexington SC vs El Paso Locomotive FC

Team pages: Lexington SC · El Paso Locomotive FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Lexington SC1.38

El Paso Locomotive FC1.49

1X2

34% 27% 39%

Lexington SC Draw El Paso Locomotive FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Lexington SC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLLLWW

El Paso Locomotive FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Lexington SC 1–2 El Paso Locomotive FC (3 last)

El Paso Locomotive FC1-4Lexington SC
Lexington SC1-2El Paso Locomotive FC
El Paso Locomotive FC2-1Lexington SC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours El Paso Locomotive FC (rating 1521 vs 1593).
H2H favours El Paso Locomotive FC: 2-0-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lexington SC	El Paso Locomotive FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.9	2.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.91

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:36

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.06 → 2.08▲	Pinn 2.08
X	3.59 → 3.63▲	Pinn 3.63
2	3.18 → 3.22▲	Pinn 3.22

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +25’	2.06	3.59	3.18
05:15 +22’	2.08▲	3.63▲	3.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lexington SC 1–0–2 El Paso Locomotive FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	1-4 HT 0-2	Lexington SC
12/10/25 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	1-2 HT 0-2	El Paso Locomotive FC
06/04/25 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	2-1 HT 2-0	Lexington SC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	26	14	5	7	45	32	47
2	New Mexico United	24	12	7	5	37	27	43
3	Colorado Switchbacks FC	25	11	5	9	40	37	38
4	Tulsa	25	10	8	7	30	24	38
5	San Antonio FC	25	9	10	6	29	28	37
6	Sacramento Republic	24	9	10	5	30	20	37
7	Lexington SC	25	11	4	10	43	30	37
8	Orange County SC	25	9	9	7	34	40	36
9	Las Vegas Lights FC	25	9	6	10	32	35	33
10	Phoenix Rising FC	25	8	9	8	35	35	33
11	Oakland Roots	25	7	9	9	30	35	30
12	Monterey Bay FC	25	4	6	15	25	43	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lexington SC	El Paso Locomotive FC
Orange County SC	6-0 W	0-2 L
Oakland Roots	4-1 W	1-0 W
Colorado Switchbacks FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Phoenix Rising FC	1-0 W	3-1 W
Monterey Bay FC	3-2 W	1-0 W
Tulsa	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lexington SC

DWWLWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	4-0	6-0	5	2	W
13/09	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	4-1	1	2	W
06/09	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-1	2-3	9	2	L
30/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
27/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
23/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
16/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
09/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
02/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	2-2	3-2	11	4	W
26/07	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	10	D

El Paso Locomotive FC

LWWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Tulsa USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
20/09	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	3	8	W
13/09	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	3-1	4-1	7	2	W
27/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
23/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
16/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	3-0	3-0	4	6	W
09/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
06/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
02/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	13	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lexington SC vs El Paso Locomotive FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an El Paso Locomotive FC win (39%). Probabilities: Lexington SC 34%, draw 27%, El Paso Locomotive FC 39%.

How many goals are expected in Lexington SC vs El Paso Locomotive FC?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Lexington SC 1.38 · El Paso Locomotive FC 1.49), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lexington SC vs El Paso Locomotive FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.