Football · USA USL Championship · 04/10, 00:00

Prediction: Loudoun United FC vs Indy Eleven

Team pages: Loudoun United FC · Indy Eleven

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Loudoun United FC1.56

Indy Eleven1.31

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Loudoun United FC Draw Indy Eleven

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Loudoun United FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDDLLLLW

Indy Eleven 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDDWLL

Head-to-head

Loudoun United FC 2–1–3 Indy Eleven (6 last)

Indy Eleven0-1Loudoun United FC
Indy Eleven2-1Loudoun United FC
Loudoun United FC3-2Indy Eleven
Loudoun United FC0-1Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven1-1Loudoun United FC
Indy Eleven2-1Loudoun United FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Loudoun United FC 1476 · Indy Eleven 1475

	Loudoun United FC	Draw	Indy Eleven
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Indy Eleven: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Loudoun United FC	Indy Eleven
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +5’	2.10	3.50	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Loudoun United FC 2–1–3 Indy Eleven

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 USA USL Championship	Indy Eleven	0-1 HT 0-0	Loudoun United FC
19/10/25 USA USL Championship	Indy Eleven	2-1 HT 1-0	Loudoun United FC
17/08/25 USA USL Championship	Loudoun United FC	3-2 HT 0-0	Indy Eleven
09/10/24 USA USL Championship	Loudoun United FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Indy Eleven
14/07/24 USA USL Championship	Indy Eleven	1-1 HT 0-0	Loudoun United FC
27/08/23 USA USL Championship	Indy Eleven	2-1 HT 0-1	Loudoun United FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	26	15	7	4	45	23	52
2	Charleston Battery	26	14	4	8	52	31	46
3	Detroit City FC	25	11	8	6	29	19	41
4	Hartford Athletic	26	9	12	5	29	26	39
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	11	5	11	28	27	38
6	Louisville City FC	26	10	7	9	43	42	37
7	Indy Eleven	25	9	6	10	32	31	33
8	Rhode Island FC	24	9	5	10	35	28	32
9	Miami FC	26	7	9	10	32	43	30
10	Birmingham Legion FC	25	4	11	10	36	42	23
11	Loudoun United FC	25	4	11	10	31	43	23
12	Brooklyn FC	25	4	6	15	25	49	18
13	Sporting JAX	26	3	5	18	31	69	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Loudoun United FC	Indy Eleven
Sporting JAX	4-1 W	1-0 W
Louisville City FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
New Mexico United	0-0 D	2-2 D
Hartford Athletic	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Loudoun United FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Loudoun United FC

WWLDDLLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-1	4-1	4	3	W
20/09	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
13/09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
05/09	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	4-5	4	4	L
30/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-3	1-4	7	2	L
23/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
16/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
09/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
02/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
26/07	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	3	W

Indy Eleven

LDWWLDDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
20/09	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
16/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	3-0	4-0	3	2	W
12/09	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
06/09	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	9	2	D
30/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
23/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
16/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
09/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
01/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Loudoun United FC vs Indy Eleven?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Loudoun United FC win (43%). Probabilities: Loudoun United FC 43%, draw 26%, Indy Eleven 31%.

How many goals are expected in Loudoun United FC vs Indy Eleven?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Loudoun United FC 1.56 · Indy Eleven 1.31), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Loudoun United FC vs Indy Eleven?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.