Football · USA USL Championship · 05/10, 00:00

Prediction: New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising FC

Team pages: New Mexico United · Phoenix Rising FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

New Mexico United1.74

Phoenix Rising FC1.34

1X2

46% 25% 29%

New Mexico United Draw Phoenix Rising FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

New Mexico United 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWDDDL

Phoenix Rising FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWDWDWLL

Head-to-head

New Mexico United 3–1–2 Phoenix Rising FC (6 last)

New Mexico United4-0Phoenix Rising FC
Phoenix Rising FC3-0New Mexico United
Phoenix Rising FC0-1New Mexico United
Phoenix Rising FC3-3New Mexico United
New Mexico United1-2Phoenix Rising FC
New Mexico United2-1Phoenix Rising FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New Mexico United 1530 · Phoenix Rising FC 1486

	New Mexico United	Draw	Phoenix Rising FC
Our model	46%	26%	29%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New Mexico United (rating 1530 vs 1486).
H2H favours New Mexico United: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New Mexico United	Phoenix Rising FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:23	1.95	3.60	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New Mexico United 3–1–2 Phoenix Rising FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 USA USL Cup	New Mexico United	4-0 HT 1-0	Phoenix Rising FC
12/04/26 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	3-0 HT 1-0	New Mexico United
05/10/25 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	0-1 HT 0-0	New Mexico United
01/06/25 USA USL Cup	Phoenix Rising FC	3-3 HT 2-1	New Mexico United
11/05/25 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	1-2 HT 0-1	Phoenix Rising FC
04/11/24 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	2-1 HT 0-0	Phoenix Rising FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	26	14	5	7	45	32	47
2	New Mexico United	25	12	7	6	39	30	43
3	Sacramento Republic	25	10	10	5	33	22	40
4	Lexington SC	26	12	4	10	46	32	40
5	Orange County SC	26	10	9	7	35	40	39
6	Colorado Switchbacks FC	26	11	6	9	40	37	39
7	Tulsa	25	10	8	7	30	24	38
8	San Antonio FC	26	9	11	6	29	28	38
9	Oakland Roots	26	8	9	9	33	35	33
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	25	9	6	10	32	35	33
11	Phoenix Rising FC	26	8	9	9	35	38	33
12	Monterey Bay FC	26	4	6	16	27	46	18

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New Mexico United	Phoenix Rising FC
Sacramento Republic	2-3 L	2-2 D
Colorado Switchbacks FC	0-0 D	3-1 W
Indy Eleven	2-2 D	2-1 W
Las Vegas Lights FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Lexington SC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Tulsa	1-0 W	2-1 W
Monterey Bay FC	5-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New Mexico United

WWDWLWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
20/09	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
17/09	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-1	4-4	0	5	D
12/09	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
06/09	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
30/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	2	12	L
27/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
23/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
16/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
09/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-1	5-2	2	3	W

Phoenix Rising FC

DDLWDWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
20/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	6	8	L
13/09	Tulsa USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
06/09	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
23/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
20/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
09/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
02/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
26/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	6	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New Mexico United win (46%). Probabilities: New Mexico United 46%, draw 25%, Phoenix Rising FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising FC?

The model expects 3.08 goals (New Mexico United 1.74 · Phoenix Rising FC 1.34), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.