Football · USA USL Championship · 04/10, 04:00
Prediction: Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay FC
Team pages: Orange County SC · Monterey Bay FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.1Total
Orange County SC1.85
Monterey Bay FC1.25
1X2
Orange County SC
Draw
Monterey Bay FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Orange County SC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Monterey Bay FC
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Orange County SC
2–1–3
Monterey Bay FC
(6 last)
- Monterey Bay FC1-2Orange County SC
- Monterey Bay FC2-1Orange County SC
- Monterey Bay FC3-2Orange County SC
- Orange County SC0-3Monterey Bay FC
- Monterey Bay FC0-0Orange County SC
- Orange County SC2-0Monterey Bay FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Monterey Bay FC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Orange County SC | Monterey Bay FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.2 | 1.1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4 | 1.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Orange County SC 2–1–3 Monterey Bay FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Orange County SC |
| 12/07/25 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Orange County SC |
| 01/06/25 USA USL Cup | Monterey Bay FC | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Orange County SC |
| 23/03/25 USA USL Championship | Orange County SC | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 22/09/24 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Orange County SC |
| 28/04/24 USA USL Championship | Orange County SC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 32 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 30 | 43 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 33 | 22 | 40 |
| 4 | Lexington SC | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 32 | 40 |
| 5 | Orange County SC | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 35 | 40 | 39 |
| 6 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 39 |
| 7 | Tulsa | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 30 | 24 | 38 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 29 | 28 | 38 |
| 9 | Oakland Roots | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | 33 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 35 | 33 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising FC | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 38 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 46 | 18 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Orange County SC | Monterey Bay FC |
|---|---|---|
| Lexington SC | 0-6 L | 2-3 L |
| Sacramento Republic | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Oakland Roots | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| El Paso Locomotive FC | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Orange County SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-4 | 0-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 23/08 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-5 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 16/08 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 09/08 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
Monterey Bay FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 16/08 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-5 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
2-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Orange County SC win (50%). Probabilities: Orange County SC 50%, draw 25%, Monterey Bay FC 25%.
How many goals are expected in Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay FC?
The model expects 3.1 goals (Orange County SC 1.85 · Monterey Bay FC 1.25), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.