Football · USA USL Championship · 04/10, 01:30

Prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC

Team pages: Tampa Bay Rowdies · Miami FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Tampa Bay Rowdies2.34

Miami FC1.06

1X2

65% 21% 15%

Tampa Bay Rowdies Draw Miami FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Tampa Bay Rowdies 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Miami FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tampa Bay Rowdies 5–1–0 Miami FC (6 last)

Miami FC2-3Tampa Bay Rowdies
Miami FC1-4Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies2-1Miami FC
Tampa Bay Rowdies3-3Miami FC
Miami FC1-2Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies2-0Miami FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1564 · Miami FC 1479

	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Draw	Miami FC
Our model	65%	20%	15%
Market	65%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampa Bay Rowdies (rating 1564 vs 1479).
H2H favours Tampa Bay Rowdies: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Miami FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.9	0.4 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	6.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:08 +8’	1.40	4.33	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tampa Bay Rowdies 5–1–0 Miami FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	2-3 HT 1-2	Tampa Bay Rowdies
17/05/26 USA USL Cup	Miami FC	1-4 HT 0-2	Tampa Bay Rowdies
15/06/25 USA USL Championship	Tampa Bay Rowdies	2-1 HT 0-1	Miami FC
27/04/25 USA USL Cup	Tampa Bay Rowdies	3-3 HT 3-0	Miami FC
23/03/25 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	1-2 HT 1-2	Tampa Bay Rowdies
25/08/24 USA USL Championship	Tampa Bay Rowdies	2-0 HT 0-0	Miami FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	26	15	7	4	45	23	52
2	Charleston Battery	26	14	4	8	52	31	46
3	Detroit City FC	25	11	8	6	29	19	41
4	Hartford Athletic	26	9	12	5	29	26	39
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	11	5	11	28	27	38
6	Louisville City FC	26	10	7	9	43	42	37
7	Indy Eleven	25	9	6	10	32	31	33
8	Rhode Island FC	24	9	5	10	35	28	32
9	Miami FC	26	7	9	10	32	43	30
10	Birmingham Legion FC	25	4	11	10	36	42	23
11	Loudoun United FC	25	4	11	10	31	43	23
12	Brooklyn FC	25	4	6	15	25	49	18
13	Sporting JAX	26	3	5	18	31	69	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Miami FC
Hartford Athletic	1-3 L	1-2 L
Brooklyn FC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0-0 D	2-2 D
Detroit City FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Rhode Island FC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tampa Bay Rowdies

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
20/09	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-0	4-0	6	4	W
13/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	1-3	5	10	L
06/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
29/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
23/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
16/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
09/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
02/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-3	5-4	5	1	W
26/07	Miami FC USA USL Championship	2-1	3-2	3	9	W

Miami FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
20/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	0	7	W
13/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
06/09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
25/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-2	0-5	0	5	L
16/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
09/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
02/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	3	9	D
26/07	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-2	2-3	3	9	L
23/07	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tampa Bay Rowdies win (65%). Probabilities: Tampa Bay Rowdies 65%, draw 21%, Miami FC 15%.

How many goals are expected in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Tampa Bay Rowdies 2.34 · Miami FC 1.06), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.