Football · USA USL Championship · 18/10, 04:00

Prediction: Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising FC

Team pages: Orange County SC · Phoenix Rising FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Orange County SC1.36

Phoenix Rising FC1.67

1X2

30% 26% 44%

Orange County SC Draw Phoenix Rising FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Orange County SC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Phoenix Rising FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Orange County SC 2–2–2 Phoenix Rising FC (6 last)

Phoenix Rising FC2-1Orange County SC
Orange County SC1-1Phoenix Rising FC
Phoenix Rising FC1-1Orange County SC
Orange County SC4-1Phoenix Rising FC
Phoenix Rising FC3-1Orange County SC
Orange County SC2-0Phoenix Rising FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Phoenix Rising FC (rating 1406 vs 1507).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orange County SC	Phoenix Rising FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.5	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.2	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	1.6 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.87

Under 2.751.92

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.14 → 3.14	Pinn 3.14
X	3.57 → 3.57	Pinn 3.57
2	2.14 → 2.14	Pinn 2.14

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +488’	3.14	3.57	2.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orange County SC 2–2–2 Phoenix Rising FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 USA USL Cup	Phoenix Rising FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Orange County SC
02/04/26 USA US Open Cup	Orange County SC	1-1 HT 0-1	Phoenix Rising FC
15/03/26 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Orange County SC
31/07/25 USA USL Championship	Orange County SC	4-1 HT 1-0	Phoenix Rising FC
08/06/25 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Orange County SC
26/09/24 USA USL Championship	Orange County SC	2-0 HT 2-0	Phoenix Rising FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	28	15	5	8	48	36	50
2	New Mexico United	28	14	7	7	44	33	49
3	Sacramento Republic	28	11	12	5	38	26	45
4	Lexington SC	28	13	5	10	49	33	44
5	Tulsa	28	11	10	7	32	25	43
6	Colorado Switchbacks FC	28	11	8	9	41	38	41
7	Orange County SC	28	10	9	9	37	44	39
8	San Antonio FC	28	9	12	7	29	29	39
9	Phoenix Rising FC	28	9	9	10	39	42	36
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	28	10	6	12	37	41	36
11	Oakland Roots	28	8	11	9	33	35	35
12	Monterey Bay FC	28	5	6	17	30	50	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orange County SC	Phoenix Rising FC
El Paso Locomotive FC	1-2 L	1-3 L
Monterey Bay FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Lexington SC	0-6 L	0-1 L
Las Vegas Lights FC	0-2 L	3-2 W
Sacramento Republic	1-1 D	2-2 D
Oakland Roots	1-1 D	0-3 L
Tulsa	1-5 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Phoenix Rising FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orange County SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	9	6	L
04/10	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
20/09	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-4	0-6	4	2	L
13/09	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
06/09	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
30/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
23/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-2	1-5	9	6	L
16/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-3	5	1	L
09/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-1	0-3	1	5	L

Phoenix Rising FC

LWDWDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	3-0	3-2	3	1	W
05/10	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
27/09	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
20/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	6	8	L
13/09	Tulsa USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
06/09	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
23/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
20/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
09/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Phoenix Rising FC win (44%). Probabilities: Orange County SC 30%, draw 26%, Phoenix Rising FC 44%.

How many goals are expected in Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising FC?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Orange County SC 1.36 · Phoenix Rising FC 1.67), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.