Football · USA USL Championship · 18/10, 23:00

Prediction: Birmingham Legion FC vs Loudoun United FC

Team pages: Birmingham Legion FC · Loudoun United FC

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Birmingham Legion FC1.91

Loudoun United FC1.44

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Birmingham Legion FC Draw Loudoun United FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Birmingham Legion FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDDDLWLW

Loudoun United FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLWDWL

Head-to-head

Birmingham Legion FC 2–2–2 Loudoun United FC (6 last)

Birmingham Legion FC1-1Loudoun United FC
Loudoun United FC2-2Birmingham Legion FC
Loudoun United FC0-1Birmingham Legion FC
Birmingham Legion FC1-3Loudoun United FC
Loudoun United FC4-2Birmingham Legion FC
Birmingham Legion FC3-1Loudoun United FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Birmingham Legion FC 1471 · Loudoun United FC 1482

	Birmingham Legion FC	Draw	Loudoun United FC
Our model	48%	24%	28%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Birmingham Legion FC	Loudoun United FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.2	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.1	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.80

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.90▼	Pinn 1.96
X	3.60 → 3.80▲	Pinn 4.07 ★
2	3.00 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.39

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +17’	2.00	3.60	3.00
17:44 +2’	1.90▼	3.80▲	3.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:42 +48’	1.96	3.84	3.23
03:28 +3’	1.99▲	3.85▲	3.27▲
05:11 +18’	2.00▲	3.80▼	3.28▲
17:06 +47’	1.98▼	3.88▲	3.27▼
15:45 +141’	1.96▼	3.96▲	3.26▼
23:04 +10’	1.98▲	4.01▲	3.30▲
11:01 +24’	1.99▲	4.04▲	3.32▲
17:08 +38’	1.96▼	4.07▲	3.38▲
17:57 +60’	1.95▼	4.12▲	3.38
19:43 +1’	1.96▲	4.07▼	3.39▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham Legion FC 2–2–2 Loudoun United FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Loudoun United FC
04/04/26 USA USL Championship	Loudoun United FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Birmingham Legion FC
04/10/25 USA USL Championship	Loudoun United FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Birmingham Legion FC
09/03/25 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	1-3 HT 1-2	Loudoun United FC
15/09/24 USA USL Championship	Loudoun United FC	4-2 HT 0-1	Birmingham Legion FC
07/04/24 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	3-1 HT 0-0	Loudoun United FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	29	17	7	5	50	26	58
2	Charleston Battery	29	15	5	9	55	35	50
3	Detroit City FC	29	14	8	7	34	21	50
4	Louisville City FC	28	12	7	9	49	43	43
5	Rhode Island FC	29	12	6	11	41	31	42
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29	12	6	11	31	29	42
7	Hartford Athletic	29	9	13	7	33	32	40
8	Miami FC	30	9	9	12	39	49	36
9	Indy Eleven	29	9	7	13	35	40	34
10	Loudoun United FC	28	5	12	11	34	45	27
11	Birmingham Legion FC	27	5	11	11	37	43	26
12	Brooklyn FC	28	5	6	17	30	57	21
13	Sporting JAX	28	3	5	20	32	74	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Birmingham Legion FC	Loudoun United FC
Sporting JAX	1-0 W	4-1 W
Detroit City FC	0-1 L	0-0 D
New Mexico United	4-4 D	0-0 D
Indy Eleven	2-2 D	1-1 D
Colorado Switchbacks FC	2-3 L	4-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Loudoun United FC (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Birmingham Legion FC

LLLDDDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
04/10	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
23/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-0	4-0	4	1	W
20/09	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-2	0-4	7	4	L
17/09	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-2	4-4	9	5	D
13/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	2-2	2-2	1	3	D
06/09	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
30/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	2-2	2-3	5	6	L
23/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-0	2-3	5	2	L
16/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-3	0	4	L

Loudoun United FC

DDLLLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
11/10	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
04/10	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
26/09	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-1	4-1	4	3	W
20/09	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
13/09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
05/09	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	4-5	4	4	L
30/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-3	1-4	7	2	L
23/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
16/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Birmingham Legion FC vs Loudoun United FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Birmingham Legion FC win (48%). Probabilities: Birmingham Legion FC 48%, draw 24%, Loudoun United FC 28%.

How many goals are expected in Birmingham Legion FC vs Loudoun United FC?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Birmingham Legion FC 1.91 · Loudoun United FC 1.44), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Birmingham Legion FC vs Loudoun United FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.