Football · USA USL Championship · 18/10, 03:00

Prediction: El Paso Locomotive FC vs Sacramento Republic

Team pages: El Paso Locomotive FC · Sacramento Republic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

El Paso Locomotive FC1.7

Sacramento Republic0.93

1X2

54% 26% 19%

El Paso Locomotive FC Draw Sacramento Republic

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

El Paso Locomotive FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDLW

Sacramento Republic 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

WDDDWDWWDD

Head-to-head

El Paso Locomotive FC 3–3 Sacramento Republic (6 last)

Sacramento Republic1-2El Paso Locomotive FC
El Paso Locomotive FC1-0Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic3-0El Paso Locomotive FC
El Paso Locomotive FC2-1Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic2-0El Paso Locomotive FC
Sacramento Republic1-0El Paso Locomotive FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours El Paso Locomotive FC (rating 1604 vs 1543).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	El Paso Locomotive FC	Sacramento Republic
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.3	2.9 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.99 → 2.99	Pinn 2.99
X	3.53 → 3.53	Pinn 3.53
2	2.23 → 2.23	Pinn 2.23

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:17 +483’	2.99	3.53	2.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · El Paso Locomotive FC 3–0–3 Sacramento Republic

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	1-2 HT 0-2	El Paso Locomotive FC
24/08/25 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Sacramento Republic
13/07/25 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	3-0 HT 1-0	El Paso Locomotive FC
20/10/24 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	2-1 HT 2-1	Sacramento Republic
15/08/24 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	2-0 HT 1-0	El Paso Locomotive FC
17/09/23 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	1-0 HT 0-0	El Paso Locomotive FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	28	15	5	8	48	36	50
2	New Mexico United	28	14	7	7	44	33	49
3	Sacramento Republic	28	11	12	5	38	26	45
4	Lexington SC	28	13	5	10	49	33	44
5	Tulsa	28	11	10	7	32	25	43
6	Colorado Switchbacks FC	28	11	8	9	41	38	41
7	Orange County SC	28	10	9	9	37	44	39
8	San Antonio FC	28	9	12	7	29	29	39
9	Phoenix Rising FC	28	9	9	10	39	42	36
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	28	10	6	12	37	41	36
11	Oakland Roots	28	8	11	9	33	35	35
12	Monterey Bay FC	28	5	6	17	30	50	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	El Paso Locomotive FC	Sacramento Republic
Orange County SC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Lexington SC	1-3 L	1-0 W
Tulsa	1-1 D	1-1 D
Phoenix Rising FC	3-1 W	2-2 D
Colorado Switchbacks FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
San Antonio FC	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 5 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: El Paso Locomotive FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

El Paso Locomotive FC

WWWWWWWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-1	10	6	W
04/10	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
26/09	Tulsa USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
20/09	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	3	8	W
13/09	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	3-1	4-1	7	2	W
27/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
23/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
16/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	3-0	3-0	4	6	W
09/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	4	1	W

Sacramento Republic

WDDDWDWWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
04/10	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
01/10	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-2	14	7	W
27/09	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	2	6	W
21/09	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	12	3	D
13/09	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
06/09	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	11	5	D
30/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
23/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
16/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Sacramento Republic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a El Paso Locomotive FC win (54%). Probabilities: El Paso Locomotive FC 54%, draw 26%, Sacramento Republic 19%.

How many goals are expected in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Sacramento Republic?

The model expects 2.63 goals (El Paso Locomotive FC 1.7 · Sacramento Republic 0.93), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in El Paso Locomotive FC vs Sacramento Republic?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.