Football · USA USL Championship · 18/10, 04:30
Prediction: Las Vegas Lights FC vs Lexington SC
Team pages: Las Vegas Lights FC · Lexington SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
Las Vegas Lights FC1.45
Lexington SC1.35
1X2
Las Vegas Lights FC
Draw
Lexington SC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Las Vegas Lights FC
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Lexington SC
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Las Vegas Lights FC
2–1–1
Lexington SC
(4 last)
- Lexington SC2-0Las Vegas Lights FC
- Las Vegas Lights FC2-1Lexington SC
- Las Vegas Lights FC1-0Lexington SC
- Lexington SC0-0Las Vegas Lights FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lexington SC (rating 1491 vs 1531).
- H2H favours Las Vegas Lights FC: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Las Vegas Lights FC | Lexington SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 2.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.2 | 3 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Las Vegas Lights FC 2–1–1 Lexington SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/26 USA USL Championship | Lexington SC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 03/05/26 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Lexington SC |
| 31/08/25 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Lexington SC |
| 13/04/25 USA USL Championship | Lexington SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 48 | 36 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 44 | 33 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 38 | 26 | 45 |
| 4 | Lexington SC | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 33 | 44 |
| 5 | Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 38 | 41 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 37 | 44 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 39 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 39 | 42 | 36 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 37 | 41 | 36 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 33 | 35 | 35 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 30 | 50 | 21 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Las Vegas Lights FC | Lexington SC |
|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Orange County SC | 2-0 W | 6-0 W |
| New Mexico United | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Lexington SC (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 04/10 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 01/10 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 20/09 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 16/08 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Lexington SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 04/10 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/09 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
4-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 27/08 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Las Vegas Lights FC vs Lexington SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Las Vegas Lights FC win (38%). Probabilities: Las Vegas Lights FC 38%, draw 28%, Lexington SC 34%.
How many goals are expected in Las Vegas Lights FC vs Lexington SC?
The model expects 2.8 goals (Las Vegas Lights FC 1.45 · Lexington SC 1.35), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Las Vegas Lights FC vs Lexington SC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.