Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 20/09, 20:00

Prediction: CA Lugano vs Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

Team pages: CA Lugano · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

CA Lugano1.39

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn0.71

1X2

52% 30% 18%

CA Lugano Draw Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Lugano 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

CA Lugano 0–1 Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn (1 last)

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn3-2CA Lugano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Lugano 1535 · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1505

	CA Lugano	Draw	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
Our model	52%	30%	18%
Market	52%	30%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Lugano	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.6	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.3	1.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	5.2 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.82

Under 1.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 1.73▼	Bet365 1.73
X	2.80 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
2	3.60 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:48 +7’	2.05	2.80	3.60
02:49 +19’	1.73▼	3.00▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Lugano 0–0–1 Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	3-2 HT 1-1	CA Lugano

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sacachispas	28	13	7	8	32	22	46
2	Berazategui	28	11	11	6	31	20	44
3	CA Lugano	28	11	11	6	31	23	44
4	Centro Espanol	28	10	11	7	35	25	41
5	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	28	10	10	8	28	27	40
6	Juventud Unida San Miguel	28	10	8	10	32	28	38
7	Puerto Nuevo	28	9	11	8	25	27	38
8	Club Mercedes	28	9	10	9	27	23	37
9	Victoriano Arenas	28	8	13	7	21	18	37
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	29	9	9	11	25	28	36
11	JJ Urquiza	29	5	14	10	14	23	29
12	Club Leandro N. Alem	28	7	7	14	27	49	28
13	Deportivo Paraguayo	28	6	9	13	18	35	27
14	Argentino de Rosario	28	3	14	11	25	36	23

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Lugano	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
Berazategui	1-1 D	0-2 L
Club Leandro N. Alem	1-0 W	3-0 W
Lujan	1-2 L	0-2 L
Victoriano Arenas	0-0 D	1-1 D
Centro Espanol	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CA Lugano (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Lugano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
06/09	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
22/08	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
16/08	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
09/08	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
31/07	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	4	9	W
25/07	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
17/07	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-2	3-2	4	8	W
12/07	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	10	2	D

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
06/09	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
30/08	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
24/08	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
15/08	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	3	10	W
08/08	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/08	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
31/07	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	9	D
25/07	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
04/07	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Lugano vs Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Lugano win (52%). Probabilities: CA Lugano 52%, draw 30%, Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 18%.

How many goals are expected in CA Lugano vs Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn?

The model expects 2.1 goals (CA Lugano 1.39 · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 0.71), with a 54% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Lugano vs Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.