Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 28/09, 20:00

Prediction: Leones de Rosario vs Lujan

Team pages: Leones de Rosario · Lujan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2Total

Leones de Rosario0.92

Lujan1.08

1X2

30% 33% 38%

Leones de Rosario Draw Lujan

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Leones de Rosario 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWLWWWDD

Lujan 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWLWW

Head-to-head

Leones de Rosario 0–1 Lujan (1 last)

Lujan2-0Leones de Rosario

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leones de Rosario 1517 · Lujan 1573

	Leones de Rosario	Draw	Lujan
Our model	29%	33%	37%
Market	30%	32%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lujan (rating 1517 vs 1573).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leones de Rosario	Lujan
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.6	2.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	2.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.00

X2.80

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:25 +14’	3.00	2.80	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leones de Rosario 0–0–1 Lujan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Lujan	2-0 HT 1-0	Leones de Rosario

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	29	16	7	6	43	22	55
2	Canuelas FC	29	15	9	5	36	20	54
3	Deportivo Espanol	30	11	15	4	24	15	48
4	Central Cordoba de Rosario	30	12	10	8	31	22	46
5	Leones de Rosario	29	11	12	6	27	23	45
6	General Lamadrid	30	9	13	8	23	26	40
7	Sportivo Barracas	29	11	5	13	31	29	38
8	Central Ballester	30	10	8	12	28	28	38
9	CA Atlas	29	9	9	11	22	25	36
10	El Porvenir	29	7	15	7	23	27	36
11	Yupanqui	30	8	11	11	33	34	35
12	CA Claypole	30	8	8	14	24	38	32
13	Fenix	29	7	10	12	21	28	31
14	Deportivo Muniz	29	4	11	14	17	33	23

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leones de Rosario	Lujan
CA Lugano	0-0 D	2-1 W
CA Atlas	1-0 W	1-0 W
Deportivo Muniz	2-1 W	4-0 W
Canuelas FC	0-1 L	2-3 L
Deportivo Espanol	0-0 D	0-0 D
Central Cordoba de Rosario	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lujan (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leones de Rosario

LDDWLWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
12/09	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/09	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
31/08	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
25/08	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
22/08	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
17/08	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	3	8	W
04/08	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
31/07	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
25/07	Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	1	5	L

Lujan

WWWLWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
12/09	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
06/09	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	2-3	4	8	L
29/08	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
24/08	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
16/08	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
09/08	Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	1-2	6	7	L
04/08	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
31/07	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	3-1	4	6	W
26/07	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	3-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leones de Rosario vs Lujan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lujan win (38%). Probabilities: Leones de Rosario 30%, draw 33%, Lujan 38%.

How many goals are expected in Leones de Rosario vs Lujan?

The model expects 2 goals (Leones de Rosario 0.92 · Lujan 1.08), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Leones de Rosario vs Lujan?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.