Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 20/09, 20:00

Prediction: Club Leandro N. Alem vs Club Mercedes

Team pages: Club Leandro N. Alem · Club Mercedes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

Club Leandro N. Alem0.81

Club Mercedes1.27

1X2

23% 31% 46%

Club Leandro N. Alem Draw Club Mercedes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Leandro N. Alem 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLLLLD

Club Mercedes 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLWLLD

Head-to-head

Club Leandro N. Alem 2–3 Club Mercedes (5 last)

Club Mercedes2-0Club Leandro N. Alem
Club Mercedes0-1Club Leandro N. Alem
Club Leandro N. Alem1-2Club Mercedes
Club Mercedes0-1Club Leandro N. Alem
Club Leandro N. Alem0-1Club Mercedes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Leandro N. Alem 1405 · Club Mercedes 1484

	Club Leandro N. Alem	Draw	Club Mercedes
Our model	22%	32%	46%
Market	23%	30%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Mercedes (rating 1405 vs 1484).
H2H favours Club Mercedes: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Leandro N. Alem	Club Mercedes
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.7	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	1.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.6	5.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.00

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.75

Under 1.752.05

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
X	2.90 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
2	2.10 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:32 +22’	3.30	2.90	2.10
03:01 +7’	3.80▲	3.00▲	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Leandro N. Alem 2–0–3 Club Mercedes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	2-0 HT 1-0	Club Leandro N. Alem
16/09/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	0-1 HT 0-0	Club Leandro N. Alem
31/05/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Leandro N. Alem	1-2 HT 0-1	Club Mercedes
20/11/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	0-1 HT 0-0	Club Leandro N. Alem
19/06/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Leandro N. Alem	0-1 HT 0-1	Club Mercedes

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sacachispas	28	13	7	8	32	22	46
2	Berazategui	28	11	11	6	31	20	44
3	CA Lugano	28	11	11	6	31	23	44
4	Centro Espanol	28	10	11	7	35	25	41
5	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	28	10	10	8	28	27	40
6	Juventud Unida San Miguel	28	10	8	10	32	28	38
7	Puerto Nuevo	28	9	11	8	25	27	38
8	Club Mercedes	28	9	10	9	27	23	37
9	Victoriano Arenas	28	8	13	7	21	18	37
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	29	9	9	11	25	28	36
11	JJ Urquiza	29	5	14	10	14	23	29
12	Club Leandro N. Alem	28	7	7	14	27	49	28
13	Deportivo Paraguayo	28	6	9	13	18	35	27
14	Argentino de Rosario	28	3	14	11	25	36	23

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Leandro N. Alem	Club Mercedes
Juventud Unida San Miguel	1-2 L	1-4 L
Defensores de Cambaceres	0-2 L	0-3 L
Sacachispas	1-1 D	2-0 W
Argentino de Rosario	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Club Leandro N. Alem (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Leandro N. Alem

WLDLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
06/09	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-2	1-4	4	6	L
30/08	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
25/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	5	0	L
22/08	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
15/08	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	4	8	L
08/08	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
27/07	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
18/07	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
12/07	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	2	7	W

Club Mercedes

DWWDLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
05/09	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
30/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-4	6	5	L
22/08	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
18/08	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
08/08	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
31/07	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	9	D
25/07	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
18/07	El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
12/07	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Leandro N. Alem vs Club Mercedes?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Club Mercedes win (46%). Probabilities: Club Leandro N. Alem 23%, draw 31%, Club Mercedes 46%.

How many goals are expected in Club Leandro N. Alem vs Club Mercedes?

The model expects 2.08 goals (Club Leandro N. Alem 0.81 · Club Mercedes 1.27), with a 55% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Leandro N. Alem vs Club Mercedes?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.