Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 18/08, 20:00

Prediction: CA Claypole vs Club Mercedes

Team pages: CA Claypole · Club Mercedes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

CA Claypole1.06

Club Mercedes1.06

1X2

34% 32% 34%

CA Claypole Draw Club Mercedes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CA Claypole 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLDDLLL

Club Mercedes 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWDWWDL

Head-to-head

CA Claypole 4–1–0 Club Mercedes (5 last)

Club Mercedes0-0CA Claypole
CA Claypole2-0Club Mercedes
Club Mercedes0-1CA Claypole
Club Mercedes0-1CA Claypole
CA Claypole1-0Club Mercedes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Claypole 1432 · Club Mercedes 1532

	CA Claypole	Draw	Club Mercedes
Our model	34%	33%	34%
Market	34%	32%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Mercedes (rating 1432 vs 1532).
H2H favours CA Claypole: 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Claypole	Club Mercedes
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.6	1.4 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	1.1 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.6	5.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.63

X2.80

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:40 +9’	2.63	2.80	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Claypole 4–1–0 Club Mercedes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Claypole
22/07/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Claypole	2-0 HT 2-0	Club Mercedes
05/04/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Claypole
11/11/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Claypole
10/06/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Claypole	1-0 HT 0-0	Club Mercedes

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	24	13	6	5	33	19	45
2	Canuelas FC	24	10	9	5	26	18	39
3	Sportivo Barracas	23	10	4	9	28	23	34
4	Yupanqui	24	8	9	7	31	26	33
5	Deportivo Espanol	23	7	12	4	18	14	33
6	General Lamadrid	24	8	9	7	20	23	33
7	CA Atlas	24	8	8	8	20	21	32
8	Leones de Rosario	22	7	10	5	20	20	31
9	Central Cordoba de Rosario	23	7	8	8	19	18	29
10	El Porvenir	24	5	14	5	18	21	29
11	Central Ballester	23	7	5	11	23	27	26
12	Fenix	24	6	8	10	19	25	26
13	Deportivo Muniz	22	4	10	8	16	21	22
14	CA Claypole	23	5	7	11	16	30	22

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Claypole

DLWLLDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	3	10	L
04/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	7	10	L
31/07	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-2	1-3	2	6	L
26/07	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
13/07	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
05/07	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	1-2	7	6	L
30/06	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	0	7	L
14/06	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
06/06	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
30/05	Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-2	4	6	D

Club Mercedes

DDLWWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
31/07	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	9	D
25/07	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
18/07	El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
12/07	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
06/07	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	3	9	W
27/06	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	4-0	5-0	1	6	W
14/06	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
06/06	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
30/05	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	4	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Claypole vs Club Mercedes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Claypole win (34%). Probabilities: CA Claypole 34%, draw 32%, Club Mercedes 34%.

How many goals are expected in CA Claypole vs Club Mercedes?

The model expects 2.11 goals (CA Claypole 1.06 · Club Mercedes 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Claypole vs Club Mercedes?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.