Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 19/09, 22:00

Prediction: UAI Urquiza vs Excursionistas

Team pages: UAI Urquiza · Excursionistas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

UAI Urquiza0.76

Excursionistas1.31

1X2

21% 30% 49%

UAI Urquiza Draw Excursionistas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

UAI Urquiza 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDDDLDLLWL

Excursionistas 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLWWWLWW

Head-to-head

UAI Urquiza 2–2–2 Excursionistas (6 last)

Excursionistas0-0UAI Urquiza
Excursionistas1-0UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza1-2Excursionistas
UAI Urquiza2-0Excursionistas
Excursionistas1-1UAI Urquiza
Excursionistas1-2UAI Urquiza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UAI Urquiza 1450 · Excursionistas 1544

	UAI Urquiza	Draw	Excursionistas
Our model	21%	31%	48%
Market	22%	29%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excursionistas (rating 1450 vs 1544).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UAI Urquiza	Excursionistas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.10

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:01 +15’	4.20	3.10	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UAI Urquiza 2–2–2 Excursionistas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	0-0 HT 0-0	UAI Urquiza
09/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	1-0 HT 1-0	UAI Urquiza
22/03/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	1-2 HT 0-2	Excursionistas
10/08/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	2-0 HT 2-0	Excursionistas
23/03/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	1-1 HT 0-0	UAI Urquiza
20/05/17 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	1-2 HT 1-0	UAI Urquiza

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	35	20	8	7	54	28	68
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	35	18	12	5	47	22	66
3	Atletico Camioneros	35	17	12	6	41	22	63
4	Talleres Remedios	35	18	9	8	37	19	63
5	Villa Dalmine	35	16	12	7	35	20	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	35	16	10	9	41	27	58
7	Real Pilar	35	15	10	10	38	34	55
8	Deportivo Armenio	35	14	9	12	36	37	51
9	Club Comunicaciones	35	13	11	11	36	33	50
10	Deportivo Laferrere	35	12	12	11	42	45	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	35	10	14	11	33	36	44
12	CS Dock Sud	35	10	13	12	38	38	43
13	Argentino Merlo	35	10	11	14	30	35	41
14	Villa San Carlos	35	9	13	13	35	39	40
15	Deportivo Liniers	35	9	13	13	29	35	40
16	Argentino Quilmes	35	9	13	13	29	36	40
17	Deportivo Merlo	35	9	13	13	34	49	40
18	CSD Flandria	35	10	8	17	31	43	38
19	Defensores Unidos	35	8	13	14	31	36	37
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	35	7	13	15	21	37	34
21	UAI Urquiza	35	4	19	12	17	31	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	35	1	12	22	22	55	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UAI Urquiza	Excursionistas
Arsenal de Sarandi	0-2 L	0-3 L
Argentino Merlo	2-0 W	2-0 W
Talleres Remedios	0-1 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Laferrere	0-2 L	5-3 W
CA Brown de Adrogue	1-1 D	0-1 L
Deportivo Armenio	0-1 L	2-1 W
CSD Flandria	1-1 D	1-1 D
Argentino Quilmes	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Excursionistas (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UAI Urquiza

LDDDLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
06/09	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
29/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
25/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	11	5	L
22/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
16/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
08/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
01/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
25/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
18/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	6	3	L

Excursionistas

DDWLWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
08/09	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
29/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	6	8	L
26/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
22/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
15/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	5-3	2	7	W
08/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
01/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
25/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
18/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UAI Urquiza vs Excursionistas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Excursionistas win (49%). Probabilities: UAI Urquiza 21%, draw 30%, Excursionistas 49%.

How many goals are expected in UAI Urquiza vs Excursionistas?

The model expects 2.07 goals (UAI Urquiza 0.76 · Excursionistas 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in UAI Urquiza vs Excursionistas?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.