Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 26/09, 20:00

Prediction: Deportivo Laferrere vs Sportivo Italiano

Team pages: Deportivo Laferrere · Sportivo Italiano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Deportivo Laferrere1.16

Sportivo Italiano1.16

1X2

34% 31% 34%

Deportivo Laferrere Draw Sportivo Italiano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Laferrere 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWDDDL

Sportivo Italiano 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLWWLD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Laferrere 2–2–2 Sportivo Italiano (6 last)

Sportivo Italiano1-1Deportivo Laferrere
Sportivo Italiano1-0Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere2-1Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano0-0Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere1-0Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano1-0Deportivo Laferrere

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Laferrere 1473 · Sportivo Italiano 1521

	Deportivo Laferrere	Draw	Sportivo Italiano
Our model	35%	31%	35%
Market	34%	31%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Italiano (rating 1473 vs 1521).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Laferrere	Sportivo Italiano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.4 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.4	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.5	5.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X2.88

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 01:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.60▼	Bet365 2.60
X	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.95
2	2.30 → 2.60▲	Pinn 2.73 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:37 +2’	2.90	2.88	2.30
00:16 +12’	2.75▼	2.88	2.45▲
01:38 +1’	2.60▼	2.88	2.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +14’	2.50	2.95	2.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Laferrere 2–2–2 Sportivo Italiano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	1-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Laferrere
08/11/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Laferrere
15/06/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	2-1 HT 1-1	Sportivo Italiano
27/07/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Laferrere
04/04/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	1-0 HT 1-0	Sportivo Italiano
24/06/23 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Laferrere

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	36	21	8	7	56	29	71
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	36	18	12	6	48	24	66
3	Talleres Remedios	36	18	10	8	37	19	64
4	Atletico Camioneros	36	17	12	7	42	24	63
5	Villa Dalmine	36	17	12	7	38	21	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	36	16	11	9	41	27	59
7	Real Pilar	36	16	10	10	40	35	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	36	15	9	12	38	38	54
9	Club Comunicaciones	36	14	11	11	38	33	53
10	Deportivo Laferrere	36	12	12	12	43	47	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	36	11	14	11	35	37	47
12	CS Dock Sud	36	10	14	12	38	38	44
13	Argentino Merlo	36	11	11	14	32	36	44
14	Deportivo Merlo	36	10	13	13	36	50	43
15	Villa San Carlos	36	9	14	13	35	39	41
16	Argentino Quilmes	36	9	14	13	29	36	41
17	Deportivo Liniers	36	9	13	14	30	37	40
18	CSD Flandria	36	10	8	18	32	45	38
19	Defensores Unidos	36	8	13	15	31	38	37
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	36	7	14	15	21	37	35
21	UAI Urquiza	36	4	19	13	18	33	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	36	1	12	23	23	58	15

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Laferrere

LWDLLWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	1-2	9	5	L
12/09	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	14	4	D
06/09	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-2	7	2	D
29/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
25/08	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
22/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	8	3	L
15/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	3-5	6	7	L
09/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-1	3	3	W
26/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	5	1	L

Sportivo Italiano

DDWWLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
12/09	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
05/09	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
29/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	0	6	W
25/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
21/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
15/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	4-0	4	6	W
09/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	4-0	2	1	W
01/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	11	D
25/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Laferrere vs Sportivo Italiano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Laferrere win (34%). Probabilities: Deportivo Laferrere 34%, draw 31%, Sportivo Italiano 34%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Laferrere vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Deportivo Laferrere 1.16 · Sportivo Italiano 1.16), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Laferrere vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.