Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 26/09, 20:30

Prediction: Deportivo Armenio vs Deportivo Merlo

Team pages: Deportivo Armenio · Deportivo Merlo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Deportivo Armenio1.32

Deportivo Merlo0.71

1X2

50% 30% 19%

Deportivo Armenio Draw Deportivo Merlo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Armenio 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWLLWDWW

Deportivo Merlo 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDDLLDLW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Armenio 4–1–1 Deportivo Merlo (6 last)

Deportivo Merlo3-2Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Merlo0-1Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio3-0Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo2-2Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio2-0Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo0-3Deportivo Armenio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Armenio 1524 · Deportivo Merlo 1457

	Deportivo Armenio	Draw	Deportivo Merlo
Our model	50%	31%	19%
Market	51%	30%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Armenio (rating 1524 vs 1457).
H2H favours Deportivo Armenio: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Armenio	Deportivo Merlo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	1.7 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.75▼	Bet365 1.75
X	2.90 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
2	3.75 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:30 +9’	1.95	2.90	3.75
23:21 +4’	1.75▼	3.00▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Armenio 4–1–1 Deportivo Merlo

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	3-2 HT 2-0	Deportivo Armenio
28/06/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	0-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Armenio
08/02/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Armenio	3-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo Merlo
29/06/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	2-2 HT 2-1	Deportivo Armenio
10/02/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Armenio	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Merlo
15/07/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	0-3 HT 0-1	Deportivo Armenio

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	36	21	8	7	56	29	71
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	36	18	12	6	48	24	66
3	Talleres Remedios	36	18	10	8	37	19	64
4	Atletico Camioneros	36	17	12	7	42	24	63
5	Villa Dalmine	36	17	12	7	38	21	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	36	16	11	9	41	27	59
7	Real Pilar	36	16	10	10	40	35	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	36	15	9	12	38	38	54
9	Club Comunicaciones	36	14	11	11	38	33	53
10	Deportivo Laferrere	36	12	12	12	43	47	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	36	11	14	11	35	37	47
12	CS Dock Sud	36	10	14	12	38	38	44
13	Argentino Merlo	36	11	11	14	32	36	44
14	Deportivo Merlo	36	10	13	13	36	50	43
15	Villa San Carlos	36	9	14	13	35	39	41
16	Argentino Quilmes	36	9	14	13	29	36	41
17	Deportivo Liniers	36	9	13	14	30	37	40
18	CSD Flandria	36	10	8	18	32	45	38
19	Defensores Unidos	36	8	13	15	31	38	37
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	36	7	14	15	21	37	35
21	UAI Urquiza	36	4	19	13	18	33	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	36	1	12	23	23	58	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Armenio	Deportivo Merlo
Atletico Camioneros	2-1 W	0-0 D
Sportivo Italiano	1-0 W	0-4 L
San Martin De Burzaco	0-0 D	1-1 D
Villa San Carlos	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Armenio (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Armenio

DLWWLLWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
12/09	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
05/09	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
30/08	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
26/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-3	2	4	L
22/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
16/08	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
08/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
01/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
25/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Deportivo Merlo

LDLDDLLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
13/09	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
06/09	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
01/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
27/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
09/08	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-3	0-4	7	1	L
02/08	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
26/07	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Armenio vs Deportivo Merlo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Armenio win (50%). Probabilities: Deportivo Armenio 50%, draw 30%, Deportivo Merlo 19%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Armenio vs Deportivo Merlo?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Deportivo Armenio 1.32 · Deportivo Merlo 0.71), with a 54% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Armenio vs Deportivo Merlo?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.