Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 27/09, 20:00
Prediction: Villa Dalmine vs UAI Urquiza
Team pages: Villa Dalmine · UAI Urquiza
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.79Total
Villa Dalmine1.37
UAI Urquiza0.42
1X2
Villa Dalmine
Draw
UAI Urquiza
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 58%
Most likely score
1-0 22%
Recent form · 10 last
Villa Dalmine
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
UAI Urquiza
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Villa Dalmine
1–3–2
UAI Urquiza
(6 last)
- UAI Urquiza0-0Villa Dalmine
- UAI Urquiza1-0Villa Dalmine
- Villa Dalmine0-1UAI Urquiza
- Villa Dalmine1-0UAI Urquiza
- UAI Urquiza0-0Villa Dalmine
- Villa Dalmine0-0UAI Urquiza
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Villa Dalmine 1510 · UAI Urquiza 1450
| Villa Dalmine | Draw | UAI Urquiza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 30% | 10% |
| Market | 63% | 24% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villa Dalmine (rating 1510 vs 1450).
- H2H favours UAI Urquiza: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Villa Dalmine | UAI Urquiza | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.8 | 2.7 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.3 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Villa Dalmine 1–3–2 UAI Urquiza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | UAI Urquiza | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Villa Dalmine |
| 09/07/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | UAI Urquiza | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Villa Dalmine |
| 18/02/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa Dalmine | 0-1 HT 0-0 | UAI Urquiza |
| 22/07/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa Dalmine | 1-0 HT 1-0 | UAI Urquiza |
| 03/03/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | UAI Urquiza | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Villa Dalmine |
| 18/07/18 Argentina Cup | Villa Dalmine | 0-0 HT 0-0 | UAI Urquiza |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 36 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 56 | 29 | 71 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 36 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 48 | 24 | 66 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 36 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 37 | 19 | 64 |
| 4 | Atletico Camioneros | 36 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 42 | 24 | 63 |
| 5 | Villa Dalmine | 36 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 38 | 21 | 63 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 36 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 41 | 27 | 59 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 36 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 40 | 35 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 38 | 54 |
| 9 | Club Comunicaciones | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 38 | 33 | 53 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 43 | 47 | 48 |
| 11 | San Martin De Burzaco | 36 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 35 | 37 | 47 |
| 12 | CS Dock Sud | 36 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 38 | 38 | 44 |
| 13 | Argentino Merlo | 36 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 36 | 44 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 36 | 50 | 43 |
| 15 | Villa San Carlos | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 35 | 39 | 41 |
| 16 | Argentino Quilmes | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 29 | 36 | 41 |
| 17 | Deportivo Liniers | 36 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 30 | 37 | 40 |
| 18 | CSD Flandria | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 32 | 45 | 38 |
| 19 | Defensores Unidos | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 31 | 38 | 37 |
| 20 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 36 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 21 | 37 | 35 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 36 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 18 | 33 | 31 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 36 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 23 | 58 | 15 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Villa Dalmine | UAI Urquiza |
|---|---|---|
| Excursionistas | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Arsenal de Sarandi | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Argentino Merlo | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Talleres Remedios | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Laferrere | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| CA Brown de Adrogue | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Armenio | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| CSD Flandria | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Argentino Quilmes | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 3 L | 1 W 3 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Villa Dalmine (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Villa Dalmine
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/08 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
UAI Urquiza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 12/09 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/08 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Villa Dalmine vs UAI Urquiza?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Villa Dalmine win (61%). Probabilities: Villa Dalmine 61%, draw 27%, UAI Urquiza 12%.
How many goals are expected in Villa Dalmine vs UAI Urquiza?
The model expects 1.79 goals (Villa Dalmine 1.37 · UAI Urquiza 0.42), with a 60% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Villa Dalmine vs UAI Urquiza?
The model gives a 58% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.