Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 19/09, 22:00

Prediction: Real Pilar vs Arsenal de Sarandi

Team pages: Real Pilar · Arsenal de Sarandi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.7Total

Real Pilar0.75

Arsenal de Sarandi0.95

1X2

28% 34% 38%

Real Pilar Draw Arsenal de Sarandi

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 20%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Pilar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWWDLW

Arsenal de Sarandi 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDLDWWWW

Head-to-head

Real Pilar 0–1 Arsenal de Sarandi (1 last)

Arsenal de Sarandi2-1Real Pilar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Pilar 1525 · Arsenal de Sarandi 1557

	Real Pilar	Draw	Arsenal de Sarandi
Our model	26%	36%	37%
Market	29%	32%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 1.7 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Pilar	Arsenal de Sarandi
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	2.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X2.80

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
04:16 +2’	3.10	2.80	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Pilar 0–0–1 Arsenal de Sarandi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Arsenal de Sarandi	2-1 HT 0-1	Real Pilar

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	35	20	8	7	54	28	68
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	35	18	12	5	47	22	66
3	Atletico Camioneros	35	17	12	6	41	22	63
4	Talleres Remedios	35	18	9	8	37	19	63
5	Villa Dalmine	35	16	12	7	35	20	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	35	16	10	9	41	27	58
7	Real Pilar	35	15	10	10	38	34	55
8	Deportivo Armenio	35	14	9	12	36	37	51
9	Club Comunicaciones	35	13	11	11	36	33	50
10	Deportivo Laferrere	35	12	12	11	42	45	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	35	10	14	11	33	36	44
12	CS Dock Sud	35	10	13	12	38	38	43
13	Argentino Merlo	35	10	11	14	30	35	41
14	Villa San Carlos	35	9	13	13	35	39	40
15	Deportivo Liniers	35	9	13	13	29	35	40
16	Argentino Quilmes	35	9	13	13	29	36	40
17	Deportivo Merlo	35	9	13	13	34	49	40
18	CSD Flandria	35	10	8	17	31	43	38
19	Defensores Unidos	35	8	13	14	31	36	37
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	35	7	13	15	21	37	34
21	UAI Urquiza	35	4	19	12	17	31	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	35	1	12	22	22	55	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Pilar	Arsenal de Sarandi
Argentino Merlo	1-0 W	0-0 D
Talleres Remedios	0-2 L	0-1 L
Deportivo Laferrere	1-1 D	1-1 D
CA Brown de Adrogue	2-0 W	1-1 D
Deportivo Armenio	1-0 W	0-0 D
CSD Flandria	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Pilar (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Pilar

LWWDDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
05/09	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
29/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
25/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
22/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
15/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
08/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
01/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
25/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	3	8	W
18/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Arsenal de Sarandi

WDDDLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
05/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
29/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	3-0	2	8	W
25/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
22/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
09/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
31/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
25/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
18/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Pilar vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Arsenal de Sarandi win (38%). Probabilities: Real Pilar 28%, draw 34%, Arsenal de Sarandi 38%.

How many goals are expected in Real Pilar vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

The model expects 1.7 goals (Real Pilar 0.75 · Arsenal de Sarandi 0.95), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Pilar vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.