Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 19/09, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo Liniers vs Argentino Merlo

Team pages: Deportivo Liniers · Argentino Merlo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Deportivo Liniers1.35

Argentino Merlo0.99

1X2

44% 31% 26%

Deportivo Liniers Draw Argentino Merlo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Liniers 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWLLWDDW

Argentino Merlo 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDLDLL

Head-to-head

Deportivo Liniers 1–1–4 Argentino Merlo (6 last)

Argentino Merlo0-1Deportivo Liniers
Argentino Merlo5-1Deportivo Liniers
Deportivo Liniers1-3Argentino Merlo
Deportivo Liniers1-1Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo1-0Deportivo Liniers
Argentino Merlo3-2Deportivo Liniers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Liniers 1520 · Argentino Merlo 1444

	Deportivo Liniers	Draw	Argentino Merlo
Our model	44%	30%	26%
Market	44%	31%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Liniers (rating 1520 vs 1444).
H2H favours Argentino Merlo: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Liniers	Argentino Merlo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	0.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X2.88

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:15 +3’	2.05	2.88	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Liniers 1–1–4 Argentino Merlo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Liniers
20/09/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	5-1 HT 4-1	Deportivo Liniers
04/05/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Liniers	1-3 HT 0-1	Argentino Merlo
14/09/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Liniers	1-1 HT 1-0	Argentino Merlo
27/04/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Liniers
04/09/22 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	3-2 HT 1-0	Deportivo Liniers

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	35	20	8	7	54	28	68
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	35	18	12	5	47	22	66
3	Atletico Camioneros	35	17	12	6	41	22	63
4	Talleres Remedios	35	18	9	8	37	19	63
5	Villa Dalmine	35	16	12	7	35	20	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	35	16	10	9	41	27	58
7	Real Pilar	35	15	10	10	38	34	55
8	Deportivo Armenio	35	14	9	12	36	37	51
9	Club Comunicaciones	35	13	11	11	36	33	50
10	Deportivo Laferrere	35	12	12	11	42	45	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	35	10	14	11	33	36	44
12	CS Dock Sud	35	10	13	12	38	38	43
13	Argentino Merlo	35	10	11	14	30	35	41
14	Villa San Carlos	35	9	13	13	35	39	40
15	Deportivo Liniers	35	9	13	13	29	35	40
16	Argentino Quilmes	35	9	13	13	29	36	40
17	Deportivo Merlo	35	9	13	13	34	49	40
18	CSD Flandria	35	10	8	17	31	43	38
19	Defensores Unidos	35	8	13	14	31	36	37
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	35	7	13	15	21	37	34
21	UAI Urquiza	35	4	19	12	17	31	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	35	1	12	22	22	55	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Liniers	Argentino Merlo
Talleres Remedios	2-0 W	2-1 W
Deportivo Laferrere	2-2 D	1-3 L
CA Brown de Adrogue	1-1 D	0-1 L
Deportivo Armenio	3-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Liniers (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Liniers

DDDWLLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
06/09	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-2	3	2	D
29/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
26/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
22/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
16/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
08/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	3-2	1	7	W
01/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
25/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
18/07	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	5	10	D

Argentino Merlo

DLLWDDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
06/09	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
30/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
26/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
22/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
15/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
01/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
25/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
18/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-2	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Liniers vs Argentino Merlo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Liniers win (44%). Probabilities: Deportivo Liniers 44%, draw 31%, Argentino Merlo 26%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Liniers vs Argentino Merlo?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Deportivo Liniers 1.35 · Argentino Merlo 0.99), with a 58% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Liniers vs Argentino Merlo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.