Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 19/09, 22:00

Prediction: Sportivo Italiano vs CA Brown de Adrogue

Team pages: Sportivo Italiano · CA Brown de Adrogue

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.87Total

Sportivo Italiano1.13

CA Brown de Adrogue0.74

1X2

44% 32% 24%

Sportivo Italiano Draw CA Brown de Adrogue

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Italiano 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLLWWL

CA Brown de Adrogue 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLDLDDL

Head-to-head

Sportivo Italiano 1–2–2 CA Brown de Adrogue (5 last)

CA Brown de Adrogue0-0Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano4-0CA Brown de Adrogue
CA Brown de Adrogue0-0Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano0-2CA Brown de Adrogue
CA Brown de Adrogue2-0Sportivo Italiano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Italiano 1530 · CA Brown de Adrogue 1469

	Sportivo Italiano	Draw	CA Brown de Adrogue
Our model	43%	34%	23%
Market	45%	31%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 1.87 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Italiano (rating 1530 vs 1469).
H2H favours CA Brown de Adrogue: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Italiano	CA Brown de Adrogue
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	1.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X2.90

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.75

2 (+0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +5’	2.00	2.90	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Italiano 1–2–2 CA Brown de Adrogue

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Italiano
19/07/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	4-0 HT 1-0	CA Brown de Adrogue
24/04/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Italiano
08/07/15 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	0-2 HT 0-0	CA Brown de Adrogue
22/02/15 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	2-0 HT 1-0	Sportivo Italiano

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	35	20	8	7	54	28	68
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	35	18	12	5	47	22	66
3	Atletico Camioneros	35	17	12	6	41	22	63
4	Talleres Remedios	35	18	9	8	37	19	63
5	Villa Dalmine	35	16	12	7	35	20	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	35	16	10	9	41	27	58
7	Real Pilar	35	15	10	10	38	34	55
8	Deportivo Armenio	35	14	9	12	36	37	51
9	Club Comunicaciones	35	13	11	11	36	33	50
10	Deportivo Laferrere	35	12	12	11	42	45	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	35	10	14	11	33	36	44
12	CS Dock Sud	35	10	13	12	38	38	43
13	Argentino Merlo	35	10	11	14	30	35	41
14	Villa San Carlos	35	9	13	13	35	39	40
15	Deportivo Liniers	35	9	13	13	29	35	40
16	Argentino Quilmes	35	9	13	13	29	36	40
17	Deportivo Merlo	35	9	13	13	34	49	40
18	CSD Flandria	35	10	8	17	31	43	38
19	Defensores Unidos	35	8	13	14	31	36	37
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	35	7	13	15	21	37	34
21	UAI Urquiza	35	4	19	12	17	31	31
22	CA Ituzaingo	35	1	12	22	22	55	15

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Italiano

WDDWWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
05/09	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
29/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	0	6	W
25/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
21/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
15/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	4-0	4	6	W
09/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	4-0	2	1	W
01/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	11	D
25/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/07	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	1	7	W

CA Brown de Adrogue

LWDWLDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
06/09	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
29/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
25/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
22/08	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
15/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
08/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
31/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
25/07	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
18/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Italiano vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo Italiano win (44%). Probabilities: Sportivo Italiano 44%, draw 32%, CA Brown de Adrogue 24%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Italiano vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

The model expects 1.87 goals (Sportivo Italiano 1.13 · CA Brown de Adrogue 0.74), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Italiano vs CA Brown de Adrogue?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.