Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 22/08, 20:00
Prediction: CA Ituzaingo vs Deportivo Merlo
Team pages: CA Ituzaingo · Deportivo Merlo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
CA Ituzaingo1.09
Deportivo Merlo1.32
1X2
CA Ituzaingo
Draw
Deportivo Merlo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CA Ituzaingo
0-5-5 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Merlo
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Ituzaingo
1–2–3
Deportivo Merlo
(6 last)
- Deportivo Merlo3-2CA Ituzaingo
- CA Ituzaingo0-1Deportivo Merlo
- Deportivo Merlo0-0CA Ituzaingo
- CA Ituzaingo0-1Deportivo Merlo
- Deportivo Merlo0-1CA Ituzaingo
- Deportivo Merlo0-0CA Ituzaingo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Ituzaingo 1437 · Deportivo Merlo 1457
| CA Ituzaingo | Draw | Deportivo Merlo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Market | 29% | 32% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Deportivo Merlo: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Ituzaingo | Deportivo Merlo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 2.9 | 1.2 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.4 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Ituzaingo 1–2–3 Deportivo Merlo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 3-2 HT 0-1 | CA Ituzaingo |
| 02/07/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | CA Ituzaingo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Merlo |
| 05/03/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CA Ituzaingo |
| 26/07/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | CA Ituzaingo | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Merlo |
| 26/03/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CA Ituzaingo |
| 09/12/19 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CA Ituzaingo |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villa Dalmine | 31 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 35 | 16 | 58 |
| 2 | Excursionistas | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 23 | 56 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 33 | 15 | 56 |
| 4 | Atletico Camioneros | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 35 | 18 | 55 |
| 5 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 39 | 22 | 53 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 31 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 36 | 23 | 52 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 31 | 45 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 33 | 44 |
| 9 | Club Comunicaciones | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 32 | 29 | 43 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 41 | 42 |
| 11 | Argentino Merlo | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 30 | 30 | 39 |
| 12 | Deportivo Merlo | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 33 | 45 | 38 |
| 13 | San Martin De Burzaco | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 28 | 30 | 37 |
| 14 | Argentino Quilmes | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 26 | 28 | 37 |
| 15 | CS Dock Sud | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 32 | 31 | 36 |
| 16 | Villa San Carlos | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 29 | 35 | 32 |
| 17 | Deportivo Liniers | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 21 | 30 | 32 |
| 18 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 20 | 32 | 32 |
| 19 | CSD Flandria | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 36 | 29 |
| 20 | UAI Urquiza | 31 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 15 | 26 | 28 |
| 21 | Defensores Unidos | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 24 | 36 | 26 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 19 | 47 | 13 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Ituzaingo | Deportivo Merlo |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Camioneros | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Sportivo Italiano | 0-0 D | 0-4 L |
| San Martin De Burzaco | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Villa San Carlos | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Deportivo Liniers | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 0 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Merlo (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Ituzaingo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 01/08 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 25/07 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 15/07 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 10/07 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 04/07 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
Deportivo Merlo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 09/08 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-3 | 0-4 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 02/08 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 26/07 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 15/07 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 10/07 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Ituzaingo vs Deportivo Merlo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo Merlo win (40%). Probabilities: CA Ituzaingo 29%, draw 31%, Deportivo Merlo 40%.
How many goals are expected in CA Ituzaingo vs Deportivo Merlo?
The model expects 2.41 goals (CA Ituzaingo 1.09 · Deportivo Merlo 1.32), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Ituzaingo vs Deportivo Merlo?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.