Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 22/08, 00:00

Prediction: CA Brown de Adrogue vs UAI Urquiza

Team pages: CA Brown de Adrogue · UAI Urquiza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.56Total

CA Brown de Adrogue0.92

UAI Urquiza0.64

1X2

41% 34% 25%

CA Brown de Adrogue Draw UAI Urquiza

Markets

Under 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

CA Brown de Adrogue 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDLLWDWL

UAI Urquiza 0-7-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDDLDDDL

Head-to-head

CA Brown de Adrogue 3–1–1 UAI Urquiza (5 last)

UAI Urquiza0-1CA Brown de Adrogue
CA Brown de Adrogue3-1UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza2-1CA Brown de Adrogue
UAI Urquiza1-1CA Brown de Adrogue
CA Brown de Adrogue2-1UAI Urquiza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Brown de Adrogue 1498 · UAI Urquiza 1444

	CA Brown de Adrogue	Draw	UAI Urquiza
Our model	39%	38%	23%
Market	43%	31%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 1.56 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Brown de Adrogue (rating 1498 vs 1444).
H2H favours CA Brown de Adrogue: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Brown de Adrogue	UAI Urquiza
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X2.88

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 22.05

Under 21.75

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 1.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:50 +7’	2.10	2.88	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Brown de Adrogue 3–1–1 UAI Urquiza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Brown de Adrogue
26/07/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	3-1 HT 2-1	UAI Urquiza
08/03/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	2-1 HT 1-0	CA Brown de Adrogue
06/09/15 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	1-1 HT 0-1	CA Brown de Adrogue
18/04/15 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Brown de Adrogue	2-1 HT 1-1	UAI Urquiza

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	30	16	8	6	45	23	56
2	Talleres Remedios	30	16	8	6	33	15	56
3	Atletico Camioneros	30	15	10	5	35	18	55
4	Villa Dalmine	30	15	10	5	33	16	55
5	Arsenal de Sarandi	30	14	11	5	39	22	53
6	Sportivo Italiano	30	14	10	6	36	22	52
7	Real Pilar	30	12	9	9	33	31	45
8	Deportivo Armenio	30	12	8	10	33	33	44
9	Deportivo Laferrere	30	11	9	10	36	39	42
10	Club Comunicaciones	30	10	10	10	31	29	40
11	Argentino Merlo	30	10	9	11	30	30	39
12	Deportivo Merlo	30	9	11	10	33	45	38
13	San Martin De Burzaco	30	8	13	9	28	30	37
14	Argentino Quilmes	30	8	13	9	26	28	37
15	CS Dock Sud	30	8	12	10	32	31	36
16	Villa San Carlos	30	7	11	12	29	35	32
17	Deportivo Liniers	30	7	11	12	21	30	32
18	CA Brown de Adrogue	30	7	10	13	19	31	31
19	CSD Flandria	30	7	8	15	23	36	29
20	UAI Urquiza	30	3	18	9	14	25	27
21	Defensores Unidos	30	5	11	14	24	36	26
22	CA Ituzaingo	30	1	10	19	19	47	13

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Brown de Adrogue	UAI Urquiza
Deportivo Armenio	0-0 D	0-1 L
CSD Flandria	2-0 W	1-1 D
Argentino Quilmes	2-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CA Brown de Adrogue (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Brown de Adrogue

LWDDLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
08/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
31/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
25/07	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
18/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
15/07	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
10/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
04/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
27/06	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
20/06	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-4	6	4	L

UAI Urquiza

DDLDDLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
08/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
01/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
25/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
18/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
14/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
10/07	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
04/07	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
28/06	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
20/06	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	10	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Brown de Adrogue vs UAI Urquiza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Brown de Adrogue win (41%). Probabilities: CA Brown de Adrogue 41%, draw 34%, UAI Urquiza 25%.

How many goals are expected in CA Brown de Adrogue vs UAI Urquiza?

The model expects 1.56 goals (CA Brown de Adrogue 0.92 · UAI Urquiza 0.64), with a 62% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Brown de Adrogue vs UAI Urquiza?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.