Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 22/08, 20:00

Prediction: Argentino Merlo vs Arsenal de Sarandi

Team pages: Argentino Merlo · Arsenal de Sarandi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Argentino Merlo1.01

Arsenal de Sarandi1.32

1X2

27% 31% 42%

Argentino Merlo Draw Arsenal de Sarandi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Argentino Merlo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLDLLWD

Arsenal de Sarandi 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWDDDL

Head-to-head

Argentino Merlo 0–1 Arsenal de Sarandi (1 last)

Arsenal de Sarandi3-0Argentino Merlo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Argentino Merlo 1496 · Arsenal de Sarandi 1527

	Argentino Merlo	Draw	Arsenal de Sarandi
Our model	27%	30%	42%
Market	26%	32%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Argentino Merlo	Arsenal de Sarandi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	5.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.40

X2.75

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
X	2.88 → 2.75▼	Pinn 2.77
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.25 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:39 +4’	3.25	2.88	2.15
09:57 +11’	3.40▲	2.75▼	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:43 +1’	3.33	2.79	2.24
10:52 +25’	3.34▲	2.77▼	2.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Argentino Merlo 0–0–1 Arsenal de Sarandi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Arsenal de Sarandi	3-0 HT 2-0	Argentino Merlo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Villa Dalmine	31	16	10	5	35	16	58
2	Excursionistas	30	16	8	6	45	23	56
3	Talleres Remedios	30	16	8	6	33	15	56
4	Atletico Camioneros	30	15	10	5	35	18	55
5	Arsenal de Sarandi	30	14	11	5	39	22	53
6	Sportivo Italiano	31	14	10	7	36	23	52
7	Real Pilar	30	12	9	9	33	31	45
8	Deportivo Armenio	30	12	8	10	33	33	44
9	Club Comunicaciones	31	11	10	10	32	29	43
10	Deportivo Laferrere	31	11	9	11	36	41	42
11	Argentino Merlo	30	10	9	11	30	30	39
12	Deportivo Merlo	30	9	11	10	33	45	38
13	San Martin De Burzaco	30	8	13	9	28	30	37
14	Argentino Quilmes	30	8	13	9	26	28	37
15	CS Dock Sud	30	8	12	10	32	31	36
16	Villa San Carlos	30	7	11	12	29	35	32
17	Deportivo Liniers	30	7	11	12	21	30	32
18	CA Brown de Adrogue	31	7	11	13	20	32	32
19	CSD Flandria	30	7	8	15	23	36	29
20	UAI Urquiza	31	3	19	9	15	26	28
21	Defensores Unidos	30	5	11	14	24	36	26
22	CA Ituzaingo	30	1	10	19	19	47	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Argentino Merlo	Arsenal de Sarandi
Talleres Remedios	2-1 W	0-1 L
Deportivo Laferrere	1-3 L	1-1 D
CA Brown de Adrogue	0-1 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Armenio	2-2 D	0-0 D
CSD Flandria	0-1 L	1-0 W
Argentino Quilmes	3-0 W	0-1 L
Defensores Unidos	1-1 D	3-1 W
Club Comunicaciones	3-2 W	2-1 W
CS Dock Sud	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Arsenal de Sarandi (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Argentino Merlo

WWDWLDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
01/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
25/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
18/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
14/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
10/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	2	10	W
05/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
28/06	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	3-2	2	9	W
21/06	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	3-1	3	4	W

Arsenal de Sarandi

WDWWLWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
09/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
31/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
25/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
18/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
14/07	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	9	L
10/07	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-1	9	5	W
04/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
28/06	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	10	D
21/06	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-1	4-2	4	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Argentino Merlo vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Arsenal de Sarandi win (42%). Probabilities: Argentino Merlo 27%, draw 31%, Arsenal de Sarandi 42%.

How many goals are expected in Argentino Merlo vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Argentino Merlo 1.01 · Arsenal de Sarandi 1.32), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Argentino Merlo vs Arsenal de Sarandi?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.