Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 15/08, 15:00

Prediction: Mjällby AIF vs Sirius

Team pages: Mjällby AIF · Sirius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Mjällby AIF1.58

Sirius1.93

1X2

30% 25% 45%

Mjällby AIF Draw Sirius

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mjällby AIF 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLDWLDLL

Sirius 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDWWWW

Head-to-head

Mjällby AIF 4–2–0 Sirius (6 last)

Sirius4-4Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF2-1Sirius
Sirius1-2Mjällby AIF
Sirius1-1Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF3-2Sirius
Sirius2-3Mjällby AIF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mjällby AIF 1455 · Sirius 1611

	Mjällby AIF	Draw	Sirius
Our model	31%	24%	45%
Market	30%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sirius (rating 1455 vs 1611).
H2H favours Mjällby AIF: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mjällby AIF	Sirius
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	2.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.7	3.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.60

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:11 +1’	3.10	3.60	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mjällby AIF 4–2–0 Sirius

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	4-4 HT 1-0	Mjällby AIF
27/07/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	2-1 HT 0-1	Sirius
14/07/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	1-2 HT 0-2	Mjällby AIF
03/11/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	1-1 HT 1-1	Mjällby AIF
06/07/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	3-2 HT 0-0	Sirius
24/07/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	2-3 HT 1-2	Mjällby AIF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	15	13	2	0	42	17	41
2	Hammarby	16	9	3	4	36	15	30
3	Djurgarden	14	8	2	4	33	15	26
4	BK Hacken	16	6	7	3	28	26	25
5	AIK	16	7	4	5	22	24	25
6	Elfsborg	16	6	6	4	21	18	24
7	GAIS	16	6	5	5	21	15	23
8	Malmo FF	16	7	2	7	31	27	23
9	Vasteras SK	15	6	4	5	24	29	22
10	IFK Goteborg	16	5	4	7	22	35	19
11	Kalmar FF	16	5	3	8	21	24	18
12	Mjällby AIF	15	4	5	6	20	20	17
13	Brommapojkarna	15	4	5	6	20	24	17
14	Degerfors	16	3	4	9	14	27	13
15	Orgryte IS	16	3	4	9	20	37	13
16	Halmstad	16	1	4	11	11	33	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mjällby AIF	Sirius
Elfsborg	0-1 L	3-1 W
AIK	1-2 L	3-0 W
Halmstad	3-3 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sirius (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Mjällby AIF

DLDLDWLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
04/08	Slovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
28/07	Lincoln Red Imps FC UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	8	9	D
25/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
21/07	Lincoln Red Imps FC UEFA Champions League Qualifying	3-0	3-0	3	2	W
17/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
11/07	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
03/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	4-4	3	1	D
27/06	FC Copenhagen Europe Friendlies	2-3	3-5	4	2	L
24/06	Halmstad Club Friendly List	1-0	3-3	6	1	D

Sirius

WWWWDDWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
26/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	4-1	4	5	W
19/07	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
12/07	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
03/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-4	9	1	D
26/06	Djurgarden Club Friendly List	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
30/05	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
24/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
18/05	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
11/05	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mjällby AIF vs Sirius?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sirius win (45%). Probabilities: Mjällby AIF 30%, draw 25%, Sirius 45%.

How many goals are expected in Mjällby AIF vs Sirius?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Mjällby AIF 1.58 · Sirius 1.93), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Mjällby AIF vs Sirius?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.