Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 23/08, 16:30
Prediction: Hammarby vs GAIS
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Hammarby1.89
GAIS0.87
1X2
Hammarby
Draw
GAIS
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hammarby
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
GAIS
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hammarby
0–3–3
GAIS
(6 last)
- GAIS2-0Hammarby
- Hammarby1-2GAIS
- GAIS3-2Hammarby
- Hammarby0-0GAIS
- GAIS0-0Hammarby
- Hammarby3-3GAIS
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hammarby 1541 · GAIS 1509
| Hammarby | Draw | GAIS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours GAIS: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hammarby | GAIS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 7.1 | 3.4 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hammarby 0–3–3 GAIS
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan | GAIS | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Hammarby |
| 17/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | Hammarby | 1-2 HT 1-1 | GAIS |
| 13/07/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | GAIS | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Hammarby |
| 26/08/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | Hammarby | 0-0 HT 0-0 | GAIS |
| 07/07/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | GAIS | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hammarby |
| 25/02/18 Sweden Cup | Hammarby | 3-3 HT 1-2 | GAIS |
Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 23 | 42 |
| 2 | Hammarby | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | AIK | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 28 |
| 4 | Elfsborg | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 27 |
| 5 | Djurgarden | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 19 | 26 |
| 6 | Malmo FF | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 26 |
| 7 | BK Hacken | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 28 | 26 | 25 |
| 8 | Vasteras SK | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 32 | 25 |
| 9 | GAIS | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 16 | 23 |
| 10 | Brommapojkarna | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 27 | 21 |
| 11 | Mjällby AIF | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 23 | 20 |
| 12 | IFK Goteborg | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 38 | 19 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 28 | 18 |
| 14 | Degerfors | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 27 | 16 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 40 | 13 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 33 | 7 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hammarby | GAIS |
|---|---|---|
| Brommapojkarna | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Elfsborg | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hammarby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 13/08 | Rakow Czestochowa UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 09/08 | BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 06/08 | Rakow Czestochowa UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 30/07 | Anderlecht UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 23/07 | Anderlecht UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 19/07 | Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 05/07 | Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
GAIS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 30/07 | FC Nordsjaelland UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-3 | 0-6 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 23/07 | FC Nordsjaelland UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | AIK Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 06/07 | Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Valerenga Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/06 | Halmstad Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hammarby vs GAIS?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hammarby win (61%). Probabilities: Hammarby 61%, draw 23%, GAIS 16%.
How many goals are expected in Hammarby vs GAIS?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Hammarby 1.89 · GAIS 0.87), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Hammarby vs GAIS?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.