Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 23/08, 14:00

Prediction: IFK Goteborg vs Elfsborg

Team pages: IFK Goteborg · Elfsborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

IFK Goteborg1.38

Elfsborg1.37

1X2

37% 27% 36%

IFK Goteborg Draw Elfsborg

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Goteborg 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWLWDL

Elfsborg 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDDLLLWWW

Head-to-head

IFK Goteborg 1–5 Elfsborg (6 last)

Elfsborg2-0IFK Goteborg
Elfsborg4-3IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg1-2Elfsborg
Elfsborg3-1IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg1-0Elfsborg
IFK Goteborg1-2Elfsborg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Goteborg 1502 · Elfsborg 1518

	IFK Goteborg	Draw	Elfsborg
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	37%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Elfsborg: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Goteborg	Elfsborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.1	1.4 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.59 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.44
2	2.60 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.62

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:26 +1’	2.45	3.40	2.60
07:33 +5’	2.50▲	3.40	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:26	2.59	3.44	2.62

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Goteborg 1–0–5 Elfsborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	2-0 HT 0-0	IFK Goteborg
28/07/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	4-3 HT 1-3	IFK Goteborg
12/07/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Goteborg	1-2 HT 1-2	Elfsborg
25/08/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	3-1 HT 1-0	IFK Goteborg
01/06/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Goteborg	1-0 HT 1-0	Elfsborg
30/10/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Goteborg	1-2 HT 0-1	Elfsborg

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	17	13	3	1	47	23	42
2	Hammarby	17	10	3	4	40	15	33
3	AIK	17	8	4	5	25	25	28
4	Elfsborg	17	7	6	4	24	18	27
5	Djurgarden	16	8	2	6	34	19	26
6	Malmo FF	17	8	2	7	32	27	26
7	BK Hacken	16	6	7	3	28	26	25
8	Vasteras SK	17	7	4	6	25	32	25
9	GAIS	17	6	5	6	21	16	23
10	Brommapojkarna	17	5	6	6	25	27	21
11	Mjällby AIF	16	5	5	6	24	23	20
12	IFK Goteborg	17	5	4	8	22	38	19
13	Kalmar FF	17	5	3	9	21	28	18
14	Degerfors	17	4	4	9	17	27	16
15	Orgryte IS	17	3	4	10	21	40	13
16	Halmstad	16	1	4	11	11	33	7

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Goteborg	Elfsborg
Sirius	1-4 L	1-3 L
Malmo FF	0-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Elfsborg (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

IFK Goteborg

LWLLWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-3	14	2	L
13/08	Gent UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
09/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	3-2	13	3	W
06/08	Gent UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
02/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
30/07	FC Levadia Tallinn UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
26/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-4	4	5	L
21/07	FC Levadia Tallinn UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
17/07	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	10	3	W
12/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-4	4	3	L

Elfsborg

DDDDLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
08/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
26/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
19/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
12/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
05/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
28/06	Fredrikstad Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
29/05	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
25/05	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
21/05	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Goteborg vs Elfsborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Goteborg win (37%). Probabilities: IFK Goteborg 37%, draw 27%, Elfsborg 36%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Goteborg vs Elfsborg?

The model expects 2.75 goals (IFK Goteborg 1.38 · Elfsborg 1.37), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Elfsborg?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.