Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 23/08, 14:00

Prediction: Vasteras SK vs Kalmar FF

Team pages: Vasteras SK · Kalmar FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Vasteras SK1.45

Kalmar FF1.53

1X2

35% 27% 38%

Vasteras SK Draw Kalmar FF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vasteras SK 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDWLWL

Kalmar FF 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDWDLL

Head-to-head

Vasteras SK 3–1–1 Kalmar FF (5 last)

Kalmar FF0-1Vasteras SK
Kalmar FF2-1Vasteras SK
Vasteras SK2-2Kalmar FF
Vasteras SK2-1Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF0-4Vasteras SK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasteras SK 1515 · Kalmar FF 1496

	Vasteras SK	Draw	Kalmar FF
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vasteras SK: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasteras SK	Kalmar FF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.2	1.6 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.40

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.69
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.42
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.54 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:20 +6’	2.63	3.40	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:25 +1’	2.69	3.41	2.54
15:46 +1’	2.69	3.42▲	2.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasteras SK 3–1–1 Kalmar FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	0-1 HT 0-1	Vasteras SK
14/09/25 Sweden Superettan	Kalmar FF	2-1 HT 0-1	Vasteras SK
06/05/25 Sweden Superettan	Vasteras SK	2-2 HT 1-2	Kalmar FF
17/08/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Vasteras SK	2-1 HT 0-1	Kalmar FF
02/06/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	0-4 HT 0-1	Vasteras SK

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	17	13	3	1	47	23	42
2	Hammarby	17	10	3	4	40	15	33
3	AIK	17	8	4	5	25	25	28
4	Elfsborg	17	7	6	4	24	18	27
5	Djurgarden	16	8	2	6	34	19	26
6	Malmo FF	17	8	2	7	32	27	26
7	BK Hacken	16	6	7	3	28	26	25
8	Vasteras SK	17	7	4	6	25	32	25
9	GAIS	17	6	5	6	21	16	23
10	Brommapojkarna	17	5	6	6	25	27	21
11	Mjällby AIF	16	5	5	6	24	23	20
12	IFK Goteborg	17	5	4	8	22	38	19
13	Kalmar FF	17	5	3	9	21	28	18
14	Degerfors	17	4	4	9	17	27	16
15	Orgryte IS	17	3	4	10	21	40	13
16	Halmstad	16	1	4	11	11	33	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasteras SK	Kalmar FF
Orgryte IS	2-0 W	3-0 W
Mjällby AIF	0-0 D	2-1 W
AIK	2-3 L	2-0 W
IFK Goteborg	4-5 L	2-3 L
Malmo FF	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kalmar FF (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vasteras SK

WLLWWDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
10/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-6	1	3	L
24/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
17/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	1	9	W
04/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-1	8	4	W
28/06	AIK Club Friendly List	1-2	2-3	1	1	L
31/05	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	2-4	4-5	7	2	L
24/05	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-2	3	4	W

Kalmar FF

LWWWLDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-4	4	1	L
09/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-3	1	3	L
01/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
25/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
20/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-2	2	3	D
12/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
05/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
27/06	Brommapojkarna Club Friendly List	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
22/06	AIK Club Friendly List	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
30/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasteras SK vs Kalmar FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kalmar FF win (38%). Probabilities: Vasteras SK 35%, draw 27%, Kalmar FF 38%.

How many goals are expected in Vasteras SK vs Kalmar FF?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Vasteras SK 1.45 · Kalmar FF 1.53), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasteras SK vs Kalmar FF?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.