Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: GAIS vs Sirius

Team pages: GAIS · Sirius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

GAIS1.49

Sirius1.4

1X2

39% 27% 35%

GAIS Draw Sirius

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

GAIS 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLWDLW

Sirius 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDLLLWWW

Head-to-head

GAIS 2–1–3 Sirius (6 last)

Sirius2-1GAIS
Sirius3-0GAIS
GAIS2-1Sirius
GAIS2-1Sirius
Sirius3-1GAIS
Sirius0-0GAIS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GAIS 1511 · Sirius 1557

	GAIS	Draw	Sirius
Our model	38%	27%	35%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sirius (rating 1511 vs 1557).
H2H favours Sirius: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	GAIS	Sirius
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.8	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.50

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.57 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.68

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:16 +3’	2.38	3.50	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:02 +677’	2.57	3.39	2.68

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · GAIS 2–1–3 Sirius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	2-1 HT 2-1	GAIS
14/09/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	3-0 HT 1-0	GAIS
24/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	GAIS	2-1 HT 0-0	Sirius
10/11/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	GAIS	2-1 HT 1-0	Sirius
13/07/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	3-1 HT 1-0	GAIS
29/08/16 Sweden Superettan	Sirius	0-0 HT 0-0	GAIS

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	22	16	3	3	52	28	51
2	Hammarby	22	13	4	5	49	20	43
3	Djurgarden	22	13	2	7	47	21	41
4	Elfsborg	22	10	7	5	31	22	37
5	BK Hacken	22	9	9	4	39	30	36
6	Vasteras SK	22	10	5	7	34	35	35
7	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	37	33	33
8	AIK	22	9	6	7	31	34	33
9	IFK Goteborg	22	9	5	8	31	41	32
10	GAIS	22	8	6	8	28	20	30
11	Brommapojkarna	22	7	6	9	30	36	27
12	Mjällby AIF	22	5	7	10	27	38	22
13	Kalmar FF	22	5	4	13	21	36	19
14	Degerfors	22	5	4	13	19	34	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	3	6	13	25	49	15
16	Halmstad	22	3	5	14	16	40	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GAIS	Sirius
Mjällby AIF	3-0 W	3-4 L
BK Hacken	0-0 D	0-3 L
Brommapojkarna	4-0 W	2-2 D
Malmo FF	0-1 L	0-1 L
Halmstad	2-0 W	2-0 W
Elfsborg	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: GAIS (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

GAIS

WLDWLLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	0	5	W
14/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
05/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
31/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	4-0	7	4	W
23/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-2	1	2	L
16/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
09/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
26/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
18/07	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
12/07	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Sirius

WWWDLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
14/09	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
05/09	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
31/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
21/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
15/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	3-4	8	5	L
10/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-2	2-2	8	4	D
03/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
26/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	4-1	4	5	W
19/07	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	3-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GAIS vs Sirius?

According to our model, the most likely result is a GAIS win (39%). Probabilities: GAIS 39%, draw 27%, Sirius 35%.

How many goals are expected in GAIS vs Sirius?

The model expects 2.89 goals (GAIS 1.49 · Sirius 1.4), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in GAIS vs Sirius?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.