Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 18/10, 16:30

Prediction: Orgryte IS vs GAIS

Team pages: Orgryte IS · GAIS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Orgryte IS1.04

GAIS1.96

1X2

19% 24% 58%

Orgryte IS Draw GAIS

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Orgryte IS 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLDLLL

GAIS 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWDLWL

Head-to-head

Orgryte IS 2–4 GAIS (6 last)

GAIS4-0Orgryte IS
GAIS3-0Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS1-4GAIS
GAIS0-1Orgryte IS
GAIS2-1Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS1-0GAIS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orgryte IS 1429 · GAIS 1505

	Orgryte IS	Draw	GAIS
Our model	19%	24%	58%
Market	19%	23%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours GAIS (rating 1429 vs 1505).
H2H favours GAIS: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orgryte IS	GAIS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.1	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.00

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.02

2 (-0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 04:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
X	3.90 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.27 ★
2	1.65 → 1.61▼	Pinn 1.63

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:31 +3’	4.33	3.90	1.65
17:20 +11’	4.50▲	3.90	1.61▼
04:21 +2’	5.00▲	4.00▲	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +376’	4.44	4.05	1.70
15:09 +14’	4.44	4.04▼	1.70▲
20:04 +56’	4.64▲	4.12▲	1.65▼
17:05 +26’	4.87▲	4.21▲	1.61▼
16:34 +50’	4.95▲	4.27▲	1.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orgryte IS 2–0–4 GAIS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	GAIS	4-0 HT 1-0	Orgryte IS
03/03/24 Sweden Cup	GAIS	3-0 HT 2-0	Orgryte IS
28/09/23 Sweden Superettan	Orgryte IS	1-4 HT 0-2	GAIS
01/06/23 Sweden Superettan	GAIS	0-1 HT 0-1	Orgryte IS
29/09/21 Sweden Superettan	GAIS	2-1 HT 0-1	Orgryte IS
03/08/21 Sweden Superettan	Orgryte IS	1-0 HT 0-0	GAIS

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	53	28	54
2	Djurgarden	24	15	2	7	50	21	47
3	Hammarby	23	13	4	6	49	21	43
4	Elfsborg	23	11	7	5	35	22	40
5	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	42	30	39
6	Malmo FF	23	11	3	9	38	33	36
7	Vasteras SK	23	10	5	8	34	36	35
8	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	32	41	35
9	AIK	23	9	6	8	36	40	33
10	GAIS	23	8	6	9	28	21	30
11	Brommapojkarna	24	8	6	10	36	43	30
12	Mjällby AIF	23	5	8	10	28	39	23
13	Degerfors	23	5	5	13	20	35	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	5	4	14	21	37	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	25	52	15
16	Halmstad	23	3	5	15	16	44	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orgryte IS	GAIS
BK Hacken	0-3 L	0-0 D
Sirius	1-2 L	0-1 L
Malmo FF	1-4 L	0-1 L
Hammarby	1-1 D	0-2 L
Halmstad	1-1 D	2-0 W
Brommapojkarna	1-3 L	4-0 W
AIK	3-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: GAIS (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orgryte IS

LWLLDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
19/09	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
13/09	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-4	3	4	L
06/09	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
22/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
16/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
08/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-4	3	3	L
02/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	2	4	W
24/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	5	1	L

GAIS

LDWLLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
20/09	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	0	5	W
14/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
05/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
31/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	4-0	7	4	W
23/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-2	1	2	L
16/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
09/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
26/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
18/07	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orgryte IS vs GAIS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an GAIS win (58%). Probabilities: Orgryte IS 19%, draw 24%, GAIS 58%.

How many goals are expected in Orgryte IS vs GAIS?

The model expects 3 goals (Orgryte IS 1.04 · GAIS 1.96), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs GAIS?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.