Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 18/10, 14:00

Prediction: Vasteras SK vs Mjällby AIF

Team pages: Vasteras SK · Mjällby AIF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Vasteras SK1.37

Mjällby AIF1.22

1X2

40% 28% 32%

Vasteras SK Draw Mjällby AIF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vasteras SK 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDWLWWL

Mjällby AIF 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDDLD

Head-to-head

Vasteras SK 1–2–3 Mjällby AIF (6 last)

Mjällby AIF0-0Vasteras SK
Mjällby AIF2-1Vasteras SK
Vasteras SK2-1Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF2-0Vasteras SK
Vasteras SK2-2Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF2-1Vasteras SK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasteras SK 1537 · Mjällby AIF 1436

	Vasteras SK	Draw	Mjällby AIF
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	40%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vasteras SK (rating 1537 vs 1436).
H2H favours Mjällby AIF: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasteras SK	Mjällby AIF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	0.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.7	1.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.40

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.35▼	Bet365 2.35
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.47 ★
2	2.70 → 2.88▲	Pinn 2.89

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +2’	2.38	3.40	2.70
03:22 +1’	2.40▲	3.40	2.80▲
09:14 +5’	2.35▼	3.40	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:51 +33’	2.33	3.52	2.89
09:03 +12’	2.42▲	3.45▼	2.80▼
11:04 +9’	2.40▼	3.47▲	2.82▲
14:57 +24’	2.35▼	3.47	2.89▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasteras SK 1–2–3 Mjällby AIF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	0-0 HT 0-0	Vasteras SK
05/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	2-1 HT 1-1	Vasteras SK
25/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Vasteras SK	2-1 HT 1-1	Mjällby AIF
25/02/24 Sweden Cup	Mjällby AIF	2-0 HT 0-0	Vasteras SK
19/10/19 Sweden Superettan	Vasteras SK	2-2 HT 1-0	Mjällby AIF
13/04/19 Sweden Superettan	Mjällby AIF	2-1 HT 1-0	Vasteras SK

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	53	28	54
2	Djurgarden	24	15	2	7	50	21	47
3	Hammarby	23	13	4	6	49	21	43
4	Elfsborg	23	11	7	5	35	22	40
5	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	42	30	39
6	Malmo FF	23	11	3	9	38	33	36
7	Vasteras SK	23	10	5	8	34	36	35
8	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	32	41	35
9	AIK	23	9	6	8	36	40	33
10	GAIS	23	8	6	9	28	21	30
11	Brommapojkarna	24	8	6	10	36	43	30
12	Mjällby AIF	23	5	8	10	28	39	23
13	Degerfors	23	5	5	13	20	35	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	5	4	14	21	37	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	25	52	15
16	Halmstad	23	3	5	15	16	44	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasteras SK	Mjällby AIF
IFK Goteborg	0-1 L	1-4 L
AIK	4-1 W	1-1 D
Sirius	0-1 L	4-3 W
BK Hacken	3-1 W	1-1 D
Kalmar FF	0-0 D	1-2 L
Elfsborg	0-3 L	0-1 L
Djurgarden	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Vasteras SK (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vasteras SK

WLWLDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
19/09	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
12/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	4-1	3	1	W
05/09	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
29/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
23/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
14/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
10/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-6	1	3	L
24/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	2	1	W

Mjällby AIF

LLWLLLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
20/09	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
16/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
07/09	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-4	4	5	L
03/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	0	4	L
31/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-4	1	1	L
15/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	4-3	7	5	W
08/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
25/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasteras SK vs Mjällby AIF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vasteras SK win (40%). Probabilities: Vasteras SK 40%, draw 28%, Mjällby AIF 32%.

How many goals are expected in Vasteras SK vs Mjällby AIF?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Vasteras SK 1.37 · Mjällby AIF 1.22), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasteras SK vs Mjällby AIF?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.