Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 18/10, 16:30

Prediction: Halmstad vs Hammarby

Team pages: Halmstad · Hammarby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Halmstad0.52

Hammarby2.13

1X2

8% 17% 75%

Halmstad Draw Hammarby

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Halmstad 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLDWLLW

Hammarby 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLDWWL

Head-to-head

Halmstad 2–2–2 Hammarby (6 last)

Hammarby1-1Halmstad
Halmstad1-0Hammarby
Hammarby2-0Halmstad
Hammarby1-0Halmstad
Halmstad2-1Hammarby
Hammarby2-2Halmstad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Halmstad 1483 · Hammarby 1564

	Halmstad	Draw	Hammarby
Our model	7%	19%	74%
Market	9%	15%	76%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby (rating 1483 vs 1564).
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Halmstad	Hammarby
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.4	2.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	5 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

110.00

X6.25

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.80

2 (-2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 10.00	Pinn 10.06
X	6.25 → 6.00▼	Pinn 6.53 ★
2	1.20 → 1.25▲	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:20 +3’	10.00	6.25	1.20
02:20 +2’	8.50▼	6.00▼	1.25▲
03:22 +4’	10.00▲	6.00	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:12 +28’	9.82	6.55	1.22
20:14 +46’	10.18▲	6.71▲	1.23▲
23:04 +19’	10.14▼	6.67▼	1.23▲
21:56 +35’	10.06▼	6.53▼	1.23▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Halmstad 2–2–2 Hammarby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	1-1 HT 0-1	Halmstad
28/09/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Halmstad	1-0 HT 0-0	Hammarby
28/06/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	2-0 HT 1-0	Halmstad
05/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	1-0 HT 0-0	Halmstad
25/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Halmstad	2-1 HT 1-0	Hammarby
12/11/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby	2-2 HT 1-1	Halmstad

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	53	28	54
2	Djurgarden	24	15	2	7	50	21	47
3	Hammarby	23	13	4	6	49	21	43
4	Elfsborg	23	11	7	5	35	22	40
5	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	42	30	39
6	Malmo FF	23	11	3	9	38	33	36
7	Vasteras SK	23	10	5	8	34	36	35
8	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	32	41	35
9	AIK	23	9	6	8	36	40	33
10	GAIS	23	8	6	9	28	21	30
11	Brommapojkarna	24	8	6	10	36	43	30
12	Mjällby AIF	23	5	8	10	28	39	23
13	Degerfors	23	5	5	13	20	35	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	5	4	14	21	37	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	25	52	15
16	Halmstad	23	3	5	15	16	44	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Halmstad	Hammarby
AIK	2-1 W	2-3 L
Degerfors	0-2 L	1-0 W
Kalmar FF	1-0 W	4-0 W
Orgryte IS	1-1 D	1-1 D
BK Hacken	0-1 L	3-0 W
GAIS	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Halmstad

LDLLLDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
12/09	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
05/09	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
29/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
22/08	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
17/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
09/08	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	7	1	L
03/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-2	2	1	L
26/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
19/07	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	7	2	L

Hammarby

WDWWWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
20/09	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
13/09	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
06/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
30/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-3	7	5	L
23/08	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	8	2	W
16/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
09/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	12	2	W
26/07	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
19/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Halmstad vs Hammarby?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hammarby win (75%). Probabilities: Halmstad 8%, draw 17%, Hammarby 75%.

How many goals are expected in Halmstad vs Hammarby?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Halmstad 0.52 · Hammarby 2.13), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Hammarby?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.