Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 19/10, 19:00

Prediction: Degerfors vs Kalmar FF

Team pages: Degerfors · Kalmar FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Degerfors1.16

Kalmar FF1.3

1X2

32% 29% 39%

Degerfors Draw Kalmar FF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Degerfors 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLWLLD

Kalmar FF 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLLLLL

Head-to-head

Degerfors 1–5 Kalmar FF (6 last)

Kalmar FF2-1Degerfors
Degerfors1-3Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF2-1Degerfors
Degerfors2-1Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF2-0Degerfors
Kalmar FF4-1Degerfors

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Degerfors 1470 · Kalmar FF 1454

	Degerfors	Draw	Kalmar FF
Our model	32%	30%	39%
Market	32%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kalmar FF: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Degerfors	Kalmar FF
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	0.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.30

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 03:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.90▲	Pinn 2.99 ★
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	2.63 → 2.38▼	Pinn 2.42

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +7’	2.50	3.25	2.63
02:14 +11’	2.63▲	3.25	2.50▼
14:49 +6’	2.75▲	3.25	2.40▼
03:28 +1’	2.90▲	3.30▲	2.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:06 +76’	2.79	3.21	2.57
12:21 +8’	2.84▲	3.23▲	2.53▼
19:25 +48’	2.81▼	3.23	2.55▲
14:16 +39’	3.00▲	3.24▲	2.40▼
06:35 +47’	2.99▼	3.23▼	2.42▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Degerfors 1–0–5 Kalmar FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	2-1 HT 1-0	Degerfors
21/10/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	1-3 HT 0-3	Kalmar FF
10/06/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	2-1 HT 2-1	Degerfors
30/07/22 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	2-1 HT 1-1	Kalmar FF
17/04/22 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	2-0 HT 1-0	Degerfors
12/09/21 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	4-1 HT 1-0	Degerfors

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	53	28	54
2	Djurgarden	24	15	2	7	50	21	47
3	Hammarby	23	13	4	6	49	21	43
4	Elfsborg	23	11	7	5	35	22	40
5	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	42	30	39
6	Malmo FF	23	11	3	9	38	33	36
7	Vasteras SK	23	10	5	8	34	36	35
8	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	32	41	35
9	AIK	23	9	6	8	36	40	33
10	GAIS	23	8	6	9	28	21	30
11	Brommapojkarna	24	8	6	10	36	43	30
12	Mjällby AIF	23	5	8	10	28	39	23
13	Degerfors	23	5	5	13	20	35	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	5	4	14	21	37	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	25	52	15
16	Halmstad	23	3	5	15	16	44	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Degerfors	Kalmar FF
Mjällby AIF	1-1 D	2-1 W
Hammarby	0-1 L	0-4 L
Halmstad	2-0 W	0-1 L
Elfsborg	0-2 L	0-1 L
IFK Goteborg	3-0 W	2-3 L
Malmo FF	2-1 W	0-1 L
Djurgarden	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Degerfors (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Degerfors

LLWWLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	5	0	D
20/09	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
14/09	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
05/09	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	12	3	W
29/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
23/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	0	2	L
16/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	3-0	2	2	W
09/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
02/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
25/07	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	6	2	L

Kalmar FF

WDLLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
20/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-5	5	1	L
13/09	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
07/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
23/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
16/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-4	4	1	L
09/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-3	1	3	L
01/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
25/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Degerfors vs Kalmar FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kalmar FF win (39%). Probabilities: Degerfors 32%, draw 29%, Kalmar FF 39%.

How many goals are expected in Degerfors vs Kalmar FF?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Degerfors 1.16 · Kalmar FF 1.3), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Degerfors vs Kalmar FF?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.