Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 18/10, 14:00

Prediction: Sirius vs Elfsborg

Team pages: Sirius · Elfsborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Sirius1.66

Elfsborg1.23

1X2

47% 26% 27%

Sirius Draw Elfsborg

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sirius 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLWWWW

Elfsborg 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Sirius 4–2 Elfsborg (6 last)

Elfsborg1-3Sirius
Elfsborg1-2Sirius
Sirius4-0Elfsborg
Elfsborg4-3Sirius
Sirius4-1Elfsborg
Elfsborg2-0Sirius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sirius 1581 · Elfsborg 1548

	Sirius	Draw	Elfsborg
Our model	46%	26%	27%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sirius: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sirius	Elfsborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.2	2.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 07:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.09 ★
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	3.60 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:27 +3’	1.85	3.70	3.60
12:20 +6’	1.95▲	3.60▼	3.30▼
04:18 +1’	2.05▲	3.60	3.30
07:12 +6’	2.00▼	3.60	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:12 +25’	1.95	3.58	3.61
20:15 +38’	1.96▲	3.63▲	3.64▲
12:23 +64’	1.98▲	3.64▲	3.57▼
11:49 +37’	2.07▲	3.53▼	3.41▼
01:13 +7’	2.08▲	3.54▲	3.37▼
06:59 +18’	1.97▼	3.65▲	3.57▲
07:33 +43’	1.96▼	3.67▲	3.60▲
16:47 +22’	1.97▲	3.65▼	3.58▼
17:50 +196’	2.10▲	3.54▼	3.33▼
23:56 +25’	2.09▼	3.57▲	3.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sirius 4–0–2 Elfsborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	1-3 HT 0-0	Sirius
08/03/26 Sweden Cup	Elfsborg	1-2 HT 0-1	Sirius
26/10/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	4-0 HT 2-0	Elfsborg
23/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	4-3 HT 2-1	Sirius
06/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	4-1 HT 1-1	Elfsborg
29/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	2-0 HT 1-0	Sirius

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	53	28	54
2	Djurgarden	24	15	2	7	50	21	47
3	Hammarby	23	13	4	6	49	21	43
4	Elfsborg	23	11	7	5	35	22	40
5	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	42	30	39
6	Malmo FF	23	11	3	9	38	33	36
7	Vasteras SK	23	10	5	8	34	36	35
8	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	32	41	35
9	AIK	23	9	6	8	36	40	33
10	GAIS	23	8	6	9	28	21	30
11	Brommapojkarna	24	8	6	10	36	43	30
12	Mjällby AIF	23	5	8	10	28	39	23
13	Degerfors	23	5	5	13	20	35	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	5	4	14	21	37	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	25	52	15
16	Halmstad	23	3	5	15	16	44	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sirius	Elfsborg
Degerfors	2-0 W	2-0 W
Vasteras SK	1-0 W	3-0 W
Malmo FF	0-1 L	2-1 W
Mjällby AIF	3-4 L	1-0 W
Brommapojkarna	2-2 D	1-2 L
Halmstad	2-0 W	4-0 W
IFK Goteborg	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Elfsborg (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sirius

WWDLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
19/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
14/09	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
05/09	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
31/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
21/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
15/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	3-4	8	5	L
10/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-2	2-2	8	4	D
03/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
26/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	4-1	4	5	W

Elfsborg

LWWWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
20/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
13/09	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
06/09	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
29/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
23/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
14/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
08/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
26/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
19/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-3	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sirius vs Elfsborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sirius win (47%). Probabilities: Sirius 47%, draw 26%, Elfsborg 27%.

How many goals are expected in Sirius vs Elfsborg?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Sirius 1.66 · Elfsborg 1.23), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sirius vs Elfsborg?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.