Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 10/10, 17:30

Prediction: Mjällby AIF vs Degerfors

Team pages: Mjällby AIF · Degerfors

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Mjällby AIF1.59

Degerfors1.06

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Mjällby AIF Draw Degerfors

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Mjällby AIF 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLDDL

Degerfors 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLLWLL

Head-to-head

Mjällby AIF 5–1–0 Degerfors (6 last)

Degerfors1-4Mjällby AIF
Degerfors0-1Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF4-1Degerfors
Degerfors1-2Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF2-0Degerfors
Degerfors0-0Mjällby AIF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mjällby AIF 1415 · Degerfors 1464

	Mjällby AIF	Draw	Degerfors
Our model	49%	27%	24%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Degerfors (rating 1415 vs 1464).
H2H favours Mjällby AIF: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mjällby AIF	Degerfors
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.5	2.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.59
2	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.96 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:48 +9’	1.90	3.50	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:34 +563’	1.88	3.59	3.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mjällby AIF 5–1–0 Degerfors

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	1-4 HT 0-3	Mjällby AIF
13/09/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	0-1 HT 0-1	Mjällby AIF
27/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	4-1 HT 3-0	Degerfors
12/11/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	1-2 HT 0-0	Mjällby AIF
16/04/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	2-0 HT 1-0	Degerfors
10/09/22 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	0-0 HT 0-0	Mjällby AIF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	22	16	3	3	52	28	51
2	Hammarby	22	13	4	5	49	20	43
3	Djurgarden	22	13	2	7	47	21	41
4	Elfsborg	22	10	7	5	31	22	37
5	BK Hacken	22	9	9	4	39	30	36
6	Vasteras SK	22	10	5	7	34	35	35
7	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	37	33	33
8	AIK	22	9	6	7	31	34	33
9	IFK Goteborg	22	9	5	8	31	41	32
10	GAIS	22	8	6	8	28	20	30
11	Brommapojkarna	22	7	6	9	30	36	27
12	Mjällby AIF	22	5	7	10	27	38	22
13	Kalmar FF	22	5	4	13	21	36	19
14	Degerfors	22	5	4	13	19	34	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	3	6	13	25	49	15
16	Halmstad	22	3	5	14	16	40	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mjällby AIF	Degerfors
IFK Goteborg	1-4 L	3-0 W
Djurgarden	0-2 L	0-1 L
Sirius	4-3 W	0-2 L
Elfsborg	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mjällby AIF

DLLWLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
16/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
07/09	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-4	4	5	L
03/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	0	4	L
31/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-4	1	1	L
15/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	4-3	7	5	W
08/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
25/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
17/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	11	6	D

Degerfors

LLLWWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
14/09	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
05/09	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	12	3	W
29/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
23/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	0	2	L
16/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	3-0	2	2	W
09/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
02/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
25/07	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
19/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-4	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mjällby AIF vs Degerfors?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mjällby AIF win (49%). Probabilities: Mjällby AIF 49%, draw 27%, Degerfors 24%.

How many goals are expected in Mjällby AIF vs Degerfors?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Mjällby AIF 1.59 · Degerfors 1.06), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mjällby AIF vs Degerfors?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.