Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 25/10, 14:00

Prediction: GAIS vs IFK Goteborg

Team pages: GAIS · IFK Goteborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

GAIS1.53

IFK Goteborg1.32

1X2

41% 27% 32%

GAIS Draw IFK Goteborg

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

GAIS 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLWDLWLL

IFK Goteborg 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWWWWD

Head-to-head

GAIS 2–2–2 IFK Goteborg (6 last)

IFK Goteborg2-2GAIS
GAIS0-1IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg1-1GAIS
IFK Goteborg2-0GAIS
GAIS2-1IFK Goteborg
GAIS2-1IFK Goteborg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GAIS 1499 · IFK Goteborg 1568

	GAIS	Draw	IFK Goteborg
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	42%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IFK Goteborg (rating 1499 vs 1568).
High corners: 13.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	GAIS	IFK Goteborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	4.5 / 8.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 18:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.26
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	3.10 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.09 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:07 +5’	2.05	3.50	3.10
13:17 +2’	2.10▲	3.50	3.00▼
16:18 +4’	2.15▲	3.60▲	3.10▲
20:51 +2’	2.20▲	3.60	3.00▼
18:23 +11’	2.25▲	3.60	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:55 +83’	2.18	3.34	3.32
08:50 +22’	2.20▲	3.37▲	3.26▼
22:19 +1’	2.22▲	3.40▲	3.18▼
17:43 +51’	2.26▲	3.41▲	3.09▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · GAIS 2–2–2 IFK Goteborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Goteborg	2-2 HT 1-0	GAIS
11/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	GAIS	0-1 HT 0-1	IFK Goteborg
28/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Goteborg	1-1 HT 0-1	GAIS
30/09/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Goteborg	2-0 HT 1-0	GAIS
06/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	GAIS	2-1 HT 1-0	IFK Goteborg
26/02/23 Sweden Cup	GAIS	2-1 HT 0-1	IFK Goteborg

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	24	17	4	3	55	30	55
2	Djurgarden	24	15	2	7	50	21	47
3	Hammarby	24	14	4	6	50	21	46
4	BK Hacken	24	11	9	4	43	30	42
5	Elfsborg	24	11	8	5	37	24	41
6	Vasteras SK	24	11	5	8	35	36	38
7	Malmo FF	24	11	3	10	38	34	36
8	IFK Goteborg	24	10	6	8	34	43	36
9	AIK	24	9	7	8	38	42	34
10	GAIS	24	8	6	10	30	25	30
11	Brommapojkarna	24	8	6	10	36	43	30
12	Mjällby AIF	24	5	8	11	28	40	23
13	Kalmar FF	24	6	4	14	23	38	22
14	Degerfors	24	5	5	14	21	37	20
15	Orgryte IS	24	4	6	14	29	54	18
16	Halmstad	24	3	5	16	16	45	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GAIS	IFK Goteborg
Orgryte IS	2-4 L	1-0 W
Mjällby AIF	3-0 W	4-1 W
Brommapojkarna	4-0 W	1-0 W
Halmstad	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: GAIS (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

GAIS

DWLLWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
10/10	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
20/09	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	0	5	W
14/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
05/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
31/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	4-0	7	4	W
23/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-2	1	2	L
16/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
09/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
26/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	10	6	D

IFK Goteborg

WWLDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
09/10	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/09	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
12/09	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
07/09	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	4-1	10	5	W
30/08	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
23/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	9	5	D
16/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-3	14	2	L
09/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	3-2	13	3	W
02/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GAIS vs IFK Goteborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a GAIS win (41%). Probabilities: GAIS 41%, draw 27%, IFK Goteborg 32%.

How many goals are expected in GAIS vs IFK Goteborg?

The model expects 2.85 goals (GAIS 1.53 · IFK Goteborg 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in GAIS vs IFK Goteborg?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.